• 关键词：家庭消费  碳足迹  结构分解分析  环境投入产出

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目（No.41501603）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（No.71533004）；安徽师范大学博士科研启动基金（No.2014bsqdjj48）

• 姚亮
• 安徽师范大学, 生命科学学院, 芜湖 241000

• 刘晶茹
• 中国科学院生态环境研究中心, 城市与区域生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100085

• 袁野
• 安徽师范大学, 生命科学学院, 芜湖 241000

• 摘要：近年来，伴随着社会经济的快速发展，我国已成为全球温室气体排放量最大的经济体，而居民消费活动造成的碳排放始终是可持续消费领域的研究热点.本研究综合采用基于投入产出的生命周期评价、结构分解分析、截面分析等方法，并借助EORA数据库，系统研究了近20年中国居民消费碳足迹的总量与组成、驱动因素贡献及未来增长趋势.结果表明，居民消费碳足迹的快速上升通道已经形成，且内在结构演化也呈现规律性，即间接排放和城镇居民排放已占主导地位并且该趋势仍在加强.驱动因素方面，人口增长、城市化进程、消费水平提高是推动碳足迹增长的主要正向力量，同时另外三因素（排放强度、消费结构及经济结构）则构成了延缓碳足迹过快增长的减排力量.截面分析结果显示，未来中国居民消费跨越世界平均水平时其碳排放总量将达到2010年基数的1.45倍，当接近于美国人均消费水平时将达到5.45倍.可以预期，未来我国居民消费碳足迹将会加速增长.

• Abstract：China has the largest emissions of greenhouse gases along with the rapid economic development in recent years. The carbon emissions from consumption activities have always been a hot topic of sustainable consumption. This study investigated the carbon footprint of Chinese household consumption in the recent 20 years and its composition structure, quantified the contribution of driving factors and predicted the growth path in the future. The research methods included economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA), structural decomposition analysis, cross-sectional analysis and EORA database. The results showed that the carbon footprint formed a solid rising channel and showed regularity in its structural evolution, in which indirect emissions and urban residents' emissions were the main component. Population growth, urbanization and the improved consumption level were main driving forces that promoted the growth of carbon footprint. On contrary, emission intensity, consumption structure and economic structure were factors that retarded the excessive growth of carbon footprint. When Chinese household consumption level exceeds the world average in the future, the carbon emission will reach 1.45 times that in 2010, and it will reach 5.45 times that in 2010 when the consumption level is close to the per capita consumption level in the United States. The carbon footprint of Chinese household consumption will inevitably enter the explosive growth phase.

• Key words：household consumption  carbon footprint  structural decomposition analysis  environmental input-output

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