研究报告
范大莎,杨旭,吴相利,周嘉,茹艺.东北三省农田生态系统碳排放时空分异特征及驱动因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(7):2797-2804
东北三省农田生态系统碳排放时空分异特征及驱动因素研究
- Spatial-temporal differentiation of agro-ecosystem carbon emissions in Northeast China and its driving factors
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（No.41171433）；国家社科基金一般项目（No.16BJY039）；黑龙江省博士后科研启动金资助项目（No.LBH-Q13101）；哈尔滨师范大学校青年学术骨干项目（No.10XQXG08）；哈尔滨市科技创新人才专项资金项目（No.2016RAXXJ307）
- 作者
- 单位
- 范大莎
- 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院, 黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150025
- 杨旭
- 1 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院, 黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150025;2 上海交通大学, 安泰经济与管理学院, 上海 200030
- 吴相利
- 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院, 黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150025
- 周嘉
- 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院, 黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150025
- 茹艺
- 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院, 黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150025
- 摘要：根据2000—2014年东北三省碳排放的相关数据,结合空间探索性分析及地理加权回归等模型方法,对研究区农田生态系统碳排放量的空间集聚性、差异性及其重要驱动因素进行研究.结果表明：东北三省农田生态系统碳排放量存在比较显著的全局空间正相关,自相关性在整体上表现出逐渐增强的趋势,到2014年全局Moran's I指数达到最高值0.3395.在局部空间相关关系上,东北三省农田生态系统碳排放量的高-高区域集中在黑龙江省和吉林省,低-低地区主要集中在辽宁省,表现出不平衡的发展格局.人均GDP对农田生态系统碳排放有负效应,总人口数对农田生态系统碳排放的影响从正效应转变为负效应,化肥施用对农田生态系统碳排放影响程度的空间分布格局发生了较大变化,代表生产技术水平和能源消耗的农业化肥施用量和农业机械总动力因素对农田生态系统碳排放的影响较大,东北三省农田生态系统碳排放和农业机械总动力相关程度有逐渐趋同的趋势.
- Abstract：The driving factors of spatial heterogeneity in agro-ecosystem carbon emissions in northeast provinces was analyzed by the methods of gravity center migration, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Data from Statistical Yearbook and China Rural Statistical Yearbook between 2000 and 2014 was adopted to evaluate the reliability of the method. The results showed significant global space positive correlation in agro-ecosystems carbon emissions in Northeast China, and the global Moran's I index in 2014 reached the highest value. On the local spatial correlation, the high-high areas of agro-ecosystem carbon emissions were concentrated in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province, while low-low areas were mainly concentrated in Liaoning Province, showing an unbalanced development pattern. GDP per capita had a negative effect on agro-ecosystem carbon emissions, while the impact of total affected population on agro-ecosystem carbon emissions changed from positive to negative. The spatial distribution of impact by application of chemical fertilizer on agro-ecosystem carbon emissions changed significantly. Agricultural machinery total power factor with energy consumption and production technology had great impact on agro-ecosystem carbon emissions. The degree of correlation between agro-ecosystem carbon emissions and agricultural machinery total power showed a gradual convergence trend.
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