• 关键词：臭氧污染  曲面响应模型  源贡献分析  污染控制  费效评估

• 基金项目：2016国家重点研发计划（No.2016YFC0207606）；广东省省级科技计划项目（No.2016A020221001，2014A050503019）；NSFC-广东联合基金超级计算科学应用研究专项资助（第二期，U1501501）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助（No.x2hjD2160320）

• 盛叶文
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室, 广州 510006

• 朱云
• 1. 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室, 广州 510006;2. 国家环境保护大气复合污染来源与控制重点实验室, 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 陶谨
• 东莞市环境保护局, 东莞 523009

• 陈享华
• 东莞市环境保护局, 东莞 523009

• 刘可旋
• 东莞市环境保护局, 东莞 523009

• CareyJang
• USEPA/Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards, RTP, NC27711, USA

• 王书肖
• 国家环境保护大气复合污染来源与控制重点实验室, 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 朱振华
• 广州城环云信技术研发有限公司, 广州 510006

• 危浩
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室, 广州 510006

• 袁颖枝
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室, 广州 510006

• 摘要：东莞是珠三角O₃污染最严重的城市，使用RSM/CMAQ（曲面响应模型）法分析了珠三角区域人为排放的NO_x和VOCs对东莞市O₃浓度变化源贡献.2014基准年分析结果表明，扣除模型域外区域传输及天然源排放对O₃本底浓度贡献（41.00%）后，东莞本地VOCs排放对O₃贡献最大（18.50%），珠三角区域NO_x减排率>13%时可持续降低东莞市O₃浓度.进一步使用ABaCAS-SE（空气污染控制成本效益与达标评估系统）对2017、2020、2025东莞市3个未来年O₃污染控制情景进行了费效评估.评估结果显示，NO_x和VOCs控制比例相对较低的2017年控制情景人体健康效益/区域控制成本比约为1.1；而控制比例相对较高的2025年东莞O₃达标情景效益成本比仅为0.1.这说明，在高减排率情景下，以末端治理为主的控制措施经济可行性较差，需综合采取产业/能源结构调整、清洁生产等措施实现NO_x和VOCs的大比例减排，实现东莞O₃的稳定达标.今后将进一步研究NO_x和VOCs减排对PM_2.5环境浓度及健康效益影响，开展多目标污染物协同控制费效评估.

• Abstract：Dongguan is one of the most ozone-polluted city over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China. We applied the advanced RSM/CMAQ (Responds Surface Model/Community Multi-scale Air Quality) system to analyze the source contribution of anthropogenic emissions of NO_x and VOCs for ambient O₃ in Dongguan. The base-year analysis in 2014 indicates that local VOCs emissions has the largest contribution to O₃ in Dongguan (18.50%) after excluding the background O₃ contributions (41%) from transported regional emissions outside model domain and the natural sources. The emission reduction of NO_x in the PRD can further lower the ambient O₃ concentration in Dongguan when the reduction rate of NO_x is greater than >13% comparing to the NO_x emissions in the base year of 2014. We further used the ABaCAS-SE (Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System-Streamlined Edition) to assess the cost-benefit of O₃ pollution control scenarios in 3 future projection years, 2017, 2020 and 2025, in Dongguan. The simulation results show that the benefit/cost ratio (human health benefit over emissions control cost) is about 1.1 when the reduction rate of NO_x and VOCs emissions is relatively low in 2017, and the rate will drop down to only 0.1 in 2025 when the control rates of NO_x and VOCs become higher. The low rate of benefit/cost means that terminal control technologies-based scenarios is not suitable for the higher emission reduction rates because of potential lower economic feasibility. The source control policies, such as adjusting the comprehensive industrial & energy structure, popularizing cleaner procession technologies etc., should be promoted to reach the attainment goal of O₃ national standard in Dongguan by 2025. However, the control benefit of PM_2.5 due to NO_x and VOCs emissions reduction is not considered in this study and further investigation is needed for multi-pollutant control strategies.

• Key words：ozone pollution  response surface model  source contribution analysis  pollution control  cost-benefit assessment

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