• 关键词：二氧化碳排放峰值  省区分解  效率  零和收益DEA模型

• 基金项目：中国博士后科学基金（No.2016M601318）；辽宁省教育厅科研平台项目（No.LN2016JD020）；国家自然科学基金（No.71573034）

• 王勇
• 1. 东北财经大学统计学院, 大连 116025;2. 东北财经大学博士后科研流动站, 大连 116025

• 贾雯
• 东北财经大学统计学院, 大连 116025

• 毕莹
• 东北财经大学统计学院, 大连 116025

• 摘要：实现2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值不仅是中国在全球气候谈判中做出的国际承诺，也是中国实现经济结构转型的必然选择，而对二氧化碳排放峰值进行合理的区域分解是中国实现二氧化碳排放达峰的必要前提.本文首先对中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值进行初始的省区分解，利用DEA-BCC模型对初始省区分解方案进行效率评估，在此基础上利用零和收益DEA模型得到全部省区达到有效的中国二氧化碳排放峰值省区分解方案.本文研究表明：1大部分省区初始分解方案的效率值较低，只有2个省区的效率值达到DEA有效，且二氧化碳排放配额比重较大省区的分配效率值较小；2经过零和收益DEA模型的优化，省区分解方案的整体效率最终提升至有效边界，二氧化碳排放配额由效率较低的欠发达地区向效率较高的较发达地区转移，较发达和不发达的两类地区均分配到了较少的二氧化碳排放配额，最终二氧化碳排放权占比较多的地区主要为二氧化碳排放严重但减排潜力较大的省区.文章最后根据本文研究结论提出了具体的碳排放省区分解政策建议.

• Abstract：Achieving the carbon emissions peak in 2030 is not only an international commitment made by China in global climate negotiations, but also an inevitable choice for China to achieve economic restructuring. Rational regional decomposition of carbon emissions peak is necessary for China to achieve its carbon emissions peak. This study first carried out the initial provincial decomposition of China's carbon emissions peak in 2030, and used the DEA-BCC model to evaluate the efficiency of the initial provincial-level decomposition scheme. On this basis, the zero sum gains DEA model was used to obtain the provincial final decomposition scheme of carbon dioxide emissions peak, which makes the carbon emissions efficiencies of all provinces in China reach the effective. The results showed that: 1 the efficiency values of the initial decomposition scheme of most provinces are low, and only two provinces' efficiency values are effectively. Those regions that accounted for a large proportion of carbon dioxide emissions quotas have small distribution efficiency values. 2 After optimization of the zero sum gains DEA model, the overall efficiency of the provincial-level decomposition scheme of the carbon emission peak is finally raised to the effective boundary, and the carbon emission quota is transferred from the less developed regions with low efficiencies to the more developed regions with high efficiencies. The developed and underdeveloped regions are assigned to low carbon dioxide emission quotas. Those areas where carbon dioxide emissions account for a large proportion are mainly those with significant carbon dioxide emissions but with huge potential for emission reductions. At the end of this paper, specific policies for carbon emissions provincial decomposition were recommended.

• Key words：carbon dioxide emission peak  provincial decomposition  efficiency  the zero sum gains DEA model

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