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研究报告

Analysis on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of O₃ and its influencing factors in Hefei City

基金项目：国家科技支撑计划（No.2014BAC22B06）；安徽省公益性研究联动计划项目（No.1704f0804056）；安徽省省级环境保护科研项目（No.2016-04）

摘要：为掌握合肥市大气环境中O₃的时空变化特征及其影响因素，对合肥市2013-2015年空气质量监测数据和气象参数进行系统的分析.结果表明，合肥市O₃污染在夏、秋季节有逐渐加重的趋势，尤其是城市中心区域，呈显著的季节特征和日单峰性；O₃易在风速小于3.3 m·s^-1、相对湿度介于50%~60%、地面气压低于1020 hPa和日平均气温介于25~28℃的气象条件下出现浓度峰值；合肥市O₃浓度与NO₂和VOCs分别存在显著的负相关和正相关关系，其中，烯烃、烷烃、芳香烃和炔烃对O₃生成潜势（OFP）的贡献值依次增大.O₃浓度可通过前一日O₃浓度、相对湿度、平均气温、PM_2.5、当日8：00风速、平均气压及NO₂等参数建立良好的统计预报模型，非标准化可决系数R²高达0.559.

Abstract：The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ozone and its influencing factors were analyzed by air monitoring data and meteorological observation from 2013-2015 in Hefei. The results showed that the trend of the ozone pollution was aggravated gradually in summer and autumn, especially in the central area of urban. The daily variation of ozone concentration showed an obvious unimodal distribution, and the seasonal variation was also clear. The maximum value of ozone concentration appeared while the average wind speed was lower than 3.3 m·s^-1, the relative humidity was higher than 50%, lower than 60%, the surface pressure was lower than 1020 hPa and the average daily temperature was higher than 25℃, lower than 28℃. The ozone concentration had a negative correlation with NO₂, and a positive correlation with VOCs in Hefei. The contribution of alkene, alkane, aromatic hydrocarbon and alkyne to the OFP had an ascending tendency. The statistical forecast model of ozone concentration was established by choosing the previous daily concentration of ozone, relative humidity, mean temperature, PM_2.5 concentration,wind speed at eight o'clock,mean pressure,NO₂ concentration and other parameters. After the evaluation,the model prediction effect showed relatively good performance in the forecast of ozone (the non-standardization coefficient of determination R²=0.559).