研究报告
方恺,张琦峰,叶瑞克,周云亨.巴黎协定生效下的中国省际碳排放权分配研究[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(3):1224-1234
巴黎协定生效下的中国省际碳排放权分配研究
- Allocating China's carbon emission allowance to the provincial quotas in the context of the Paris Agreement
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.71704157）；浙江省软科学研究计划资助项目（No.2017C35003）；浙江省高校重大人文社科项目攻关计划规划重点项目（No.2016GH005）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
- 作者
- 单位
- 方恺
- 1. 浙江大学公共管理学院, 杭州 310058;2. 荷兰莱顿大学环境科学研究所, 莱顿 2333CC
- 张琦峰
- 浙江大学公共管理学院, 杭州 310058
- 叶瑞克
- 浙江工业大学绿色低碳发展研究中心, 杭州 310023
- 周云亨
- 浙江大学公共管理学院, 杭州 310058
- 摘要：随着《巴黎协定》正式生效，碳排放权作为关系人类福祉的一种新型发展权，如何分配已成为世界各国共同关注的焦点问题.中国是全球最大的碳排放国，面临着巨大的减排压力.为分解落实我国政府提出的2030年碳减排"自主行动目标"，提出公平性、效率性、可行性、可持续性4项分配原则，从社会、经济、环境三重维度系统选取分配指标，构建"共同但有区别"的省际碳排放权分配模型，据此对31个省区2016—2030年的碳排放配额进行核算.研究表明，碳排放配额最多为广东、山东和江苏，最少为西藏、新疆和青海.对比配额结果与当前碳排放规模发现，山西等9省区未来的碳排放空间呈现赤字，海南等16省区的碳排放空间呈现盈余，浙江等6省区则收支大致相抵.鉴于各省区面临不同的减排任务和压力，差别化的控排政策是保证我国"2030目标"顺利实现的关键.
- Abstract：Carbon emission allowance has been a new form of right for development in support of human sustainable well-being in the post-Paris Agreement era. This brings the subject of allocation into focus. China, the world's largest carbon emitter, is facing the challenge of reducing its carbon emissions. This paper aims to help Chinese central government implement its ambitious emission reduction targets towards 2030 by allocating China's carbon emission allowance to the provincial quotas. In order to do so, we propose four criteria for the allocation, namely fairness, efficiency, feasibility and sustainability. Then, a set of indicators from the social, economic and environmental pillars of sustainable development are selected, and a model that allocates China's carbon emission allowance to the provincial quotas is constructed according to the common but differentiated responsibility principle. The results show that between 2016-2030 Guangdong, Shandong and Jiangsu would have the largest carbon emission quotas, while Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai would have the smallest ones. Compared with the current province-wide carbon emissions in the 31 provinces, nine provinces such as Shanxi will run a significant deficit in terms of carbon emission space, 16 provinces such as Hainan will run a surplus, and the remaining provinces will be close to the break-even point. In view of the differing emission reduction tasks and pressures confronted by individual provinces, place-specific differentiated policies for carbon emissions control would be the key to achieving China's 2030 target.
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