• 关键词：洞庭湖  水环境演变  关键影响因素  识别

• 基金项目：国家科技支撑计划课题（No.2014BAC09B02）；万人计划项目（No.312232102）

• 王艳分
• 1. 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院, 北京 100048;2. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;3. 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012

• 倪兆奎
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012

• 林日彭
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 南昌大学资源环境与化工学院, 南昌 330031

• 郭舒琨
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌 443002

• 王圣瑞
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012

• 李晓秀
• 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院, 北京 100048

• 摘要：为了更有效地保护洞庭湖水环境，本研究基于1991-2015年流域社会经济发展、水文情势变化与湖泊水环境监测数据，从水质和藻类水华两方面探讨了洞庭湖水环境演变特征，采用主成分分析法筛选确定了主要驱动因素，并通过多元回归分析识别了不同阶段洞庭湖水环境演变的关键影响因素.结果表明：1991-2015年，洞庭湖水环境质量总体呈下降趋势；其中，1991-2002年洞庭湖水质下降较为缓慢，藻类水华程度总体稳定，影响水环境演变的关键影响因素为流域污染负荷输入，其中农业面源贡献相对较大；2003-2015年洞庭湖水质呈加速下降趋势，藻类水华程度也明显加重，局部水域已出现明显藻类水华现象，该阶段水环境演变主要受流域污染负荷输入和水文情势变化共同影响.因此，今后洞庭湖水环境保护不仅要继续加强流域污染控制，有效削减入湖污染负荷，也要密切关注水文情势变化对洞庭湖水环境的不利影响，采取针对性的措施，科学恢复或调整江湖关系，把不利影响降到最低.

• Abstract：The aims of this study were to explore the historical characteristics of water environment evolution from the aspects of water quality and algal blooms, and to reveal the key factors at different stages by the methods of principal component analysis and multiple regressions based on the social and economic development,the change of hydrological situation and the lake water environment monitoring data from 1995 to 2015, in order to protect the Dongting Lake water environment more effectively. The result showed that the water environment quality has been declined at whole during the past two decades, water quality of Dongting Lake decreased slowly, algae blooms were stable in general. From 1991 to 2002, the key factors affecting its evolution of water environment was the input of pollution loading from the basin, and the contribution of agricultural non-point source was relatively large at this stage. Thereafter, the water quality of Dongting Lake showed accelerated decline trend and algal blooms situation was more serious, the obvious algal blooms phenomenon has already appeared in local region. So the protection of Dongting Lake water environment should pay more attention to two points, one is to continue to strengthen pollution control, especially reducing the pollution loading into the lake, the other is pay close attention to the adverse effects on the Dongting Lake water environment from the hydrological changes. Targeted measures should be taken to restore or adjust the relationship between river and lake scientifically, reducing the adverse effects to the lowest.

• Key words：Dongting Lake  water environment evolution  key factor  reveal

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