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研究报告

Simulating studies of the effect of the popularization of electric vehicle on air pollution in Jiangsu Province in winter

基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.41675004，41475005）；江苏省六大人才高峰计划（No.2014JY019）；南京信息工程大学人才启动费项目

管奇坤
南京信息工程大学大气物理学院, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室, 南京 210044

马晓燕
南京信息工程大学大气物理学院, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室, 南京 210044

胡亚男
南京信息工程大学大气物理学院, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室, 南京 210044

沙桐
南京信息工程大学大气物理学院, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室, 南京 210044

摘要：为研究电动汽车普及对空气质量的影响，首先利用机动车排放计算模型MOBILE估算了在电动汽车替代50%小型载客车情景下江苏省的大气污染物排放量，并利用中尺度气象-化学模式（WRF-Chem）模拟和分析了电动车替代前后冬季污染物浓度的变化特征.结果表明，如果用电动汽车替代小型载客车，江苏省13个地级市的CO、NO_x、VOC排放量都有所降低，减排量从地区来看，苏南 > 苏中 > 苏北.电动汽车替代将会造成江苏地区由交通排放引起的CO浓度降低20%~35%，氮氧化物浓度降低10%~30%，减排效果总体上苏南地区好于苏中和苏北地区.交通排放对于SO₂、一次PM_2.5和PM₁₀的贡献小，也可能是因为清单低估了交通源对它们的贡献，因此，减排效果不明显.受NO_x影响，交通减排增加了O₃浓度.

Abstract：To study the influence of the popularization of electric vehicle on air quality, a vehicle emission model (MOBILE) was firstly used to calculate the emissions of air pollutants in Jiangsu province when electric vehicle substitute 50% light-duty passenger car, and the meso-scale atmospheric dynamics-chemical model (WRF-Chem) was then employed to simulate and analyze the changes of air pollutants concentration with and without electric vehicle substituting. The results showed that, the emissions of CO, NO_x and VOC in 13 cities of Jiangsu decreased and SJ (south of Jiangsu) > CJ (central of Jiangsu) > NJ (north of Jiangsu) if electric vehicle substituted 50% light-duty passenger car. The CO and NO_x concentration induced by transportation decreased by 20%~35%, 10%~30% in Jiangsu when emission was reduced and generally reduction effect was better in SJ than CJ and NJ. The transportation emission has little contribution to SO₂, and primary PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, which possibly because the emission inventory underestimates the contribution from transportation, so the effect of reducing emissions is not obvious. O₃ concentration was increased by reducing transportation emission because of the influence of NO_x.