• 关键词：不利风向条件  PM_2.5  数值模拟  北部湾  海口市

• 基金项目：国家重点研发计划项目（No.2016YFC0201504）；北京市科技新星（No.Z181100006218077）；国家自然科学基金（No.91544110，41571447，41705109）

• 刘旭艳
• 1. 国家卫星气象中心, 北京 100081;2. 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 刘欢
• 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 张强
• 清华大学地球系统科学系, 北京 100084

• 贺克斌
• 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 洪朝鹏
• 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 邓梵渊
• 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 张倩倩
• 国家卫星气象中心, 北京 100081

• 梁林林
• 中国气象科学研究院灾害国家重点实验室和大气化学重点开放实验室, 北京 100081

• 张兴赢
• 国家卫星气象中心, 北京 100081

• 李肖霞
• 中国气象局气象探测中心, 北京 100081

• 摘要：通过分析2013—2017年海口市风向频率、地面PM_2.5浓度及海口市所处北部湾地理位置，确定12月为北部湾对海口市最不利风向时间段.利用中尺度气象模式（WRF，Weather Research Forecast）驱动空气质量模型（CMAQ，Community Multi-scale Air Quality），设置一系列数值模拟情景，深入分析北部湾人为源对海口市PM_2.5浓度影响.结果表明：WRF/CMAQ能很好地再现北部湾气象场和PM_2.5浓度的时空分布.2013年12月，北部湾人为源对海口市PM_2.5平均贡献率约为45.4%，其中约有90%来源于海口市自身人为源，约有10%来源于广东广西片区，海南片区除海口外其余市县贡献可忽略不计.污染时段，北部湾和海口市自身贡献率均下降，平均贡献率分别为40%和36%，表明污染时段海口市PM_2.5主要源区不仅来自北部湾.通过分析后向轨迹，发现污染时段均会经过一个关键区——珠三角区域，表明珠三角区域很有可能也是造成2013年12月海口市PM_2.5污染的主要源区.清洁时段，北部湾和海口市自身贡献率均上升，平均贡献率分别为52%和48%，表明北部湾对海口市PM_2.5浓度影响在清洁时段更显著.因此，北部湾未来产业规划值得关注，因为这些产业很有可能使目前海口市清洁时段变为污染时段，导致空气质量下降.

• Abstract：Based on analysis of monthly wind direction frequency and PM_2.5 concentration in Haikou from 2013 to 2017, we found that pollution transport from Beibu Gulf to Haikou is greatest in December because of the most frequent wind direction. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) driven by the mesoscale meteorological model (WRF, Weather Research Forecast) is applied in this study to deeply analyze contribution from Beibu Gulf to PM_2.5 in Haikou. WRF/CMAQ model can well reproduce the spatial-temporal distribution of meteorological field and PM_2.5 concentration in Beibu Gulf. The results suggest that in December 2013, anthropogenic emissions from the whole Beibu Gulf contribute 45.4% to PM_2.5 in Haikou, in which 90% is from Haikou, and 10% is from Guangdong and Guangxi District. During polluted periods, contributions from Beibu Gulf and Haikou reduced to 40% and 36%, respectively, indicating that the Beibu Gulf isn't the only main PM_2.5 source region for Haikou in December 2013. Through backward trajectories analysis method, we found that all the air masses passed the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during the pollution periods. It implies that PRD was also the main source region for PM_2.5 in Haikou during December 2013. During clean days, contributions from Beibu Gulf and Haikou increased to 52% and 48%, respectively, indicating that the source from Beibu Gulf to PM_2.5 in Haikou is more important in clean days than that in polluted days. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the new industrial programs in Beibu Gulf, emissions from which are likely to change the clean days to the polluted days in Haikou. As a result of this, it will decrease air quality in Haikou.

• Key words：adverse wind direction condition  PM_2.5  numerical simulation  Beibu Gulf  Haikou

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