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研究报告

Analysis of ozone generation sensitivity in Chengdu and establishment of control strategy

摘要：利用OZIPR模式结合经验动力学建模方法（EKMA）模拟成都市2017年O₃生成过程并绘制EKMA曲线，模拟过程采用CB05机理描述系统的动力学机理，结果表明，成都市O₃生成处于VOCs控制区，同时存在NO_x单独减少的不利效应，O₃控制策略应对VOCs进行减排或同时减排VOCs和NO_x.选取5种VOCs和NO_x减排比例进行计算，分析结果发现，VOCs与NO_x减排量呈线性关系：VOCs=0.77NO_x+0.18.成都市"十二五"规划中NO_x减排目标为19.13%，代入上式计算后知，VOCs需减排33%才能使O₃最大小时浓度达到环境空气质量的二级标准.利用臭氧生成潜势（OFP）计算14种VOCs人为排放源对O₃生成的贡献，结果显示，对OFP具有主要贡献的有8种排放源，将33%的VOCs减排目标分配到这8种排放源中，可得各排放源的VOCs减排目标：移动源11.88%、溶剂使用源10.23%、能源民用燃烧3.3%、化工行业2.97%、露天秸秆焚烧1.49%、餐饮0.83%、汽油蒸汽0.63%、建材行业0.59%.

Abstract：The OZIPR model was combined with the Empirical Dynamics Modeling Method (EKMA) to simulate the O₃ generation process during 2017 in Chengdu. The EKMA curve was plotted. The simulation process uses the CB05 mechanism to describe the dynamics of the system. The results show that O₃ generation in Chengdu is in the VOCs control area. Its O₃ control strategy should reduce VOCs emissions, or the emissions of VOCs and NO_x at the same time. Selecting five kinds of VOCs and NO_x reduction ratios to calculate, it is found that VOCs had a linear relationship with NO_x emission reduction, i.e., VOCs=0.77NO_x+0.18. The NO_x emission reduction target in Chengdu's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is 19.13%. Therefore, VOCs should be reduced by 33% in order to achieve the O₃ maximum hour concentration of secondary air quality standards. Using OFP to calculate the contribution of 14 VOCs anthropogenic emission sources to O₃ generation, the results show that there are eight sources of emissions contributing primarily to OFP. Distributing 33% of VOCs emission reduction targets to these eight emission sources will result in VOCs emission reduction targets for each emission source, i.e., 11.88% of mobile sources, 10.23% of solvent use sources, 3.3% of energy for civilian use, 2.97% of chemical industry, 1.49% of open straw burning, 0.83% of catering, 0.63% of gasoline steam, and 0.59% of building materials.