• 关键词：水环境承载力  结构方程  双向调控  湟水流域

• 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（No.2018ZX07111003）

• 崔丹
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 李瑞
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 陈岩
• 环境保护部环境规划院, 北京 100012

• 马冰然
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 贾紫牧
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 曾维华
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 摘要：针对流域水环境承载力评价中指标体系构建及权重确定缺乏客观依据的问题，以湟水流域小峡桥断面上游为例，通过兼顾压力与水环境承载力的控制断面水质影响路径分析，建立了面向水环境承载力评价的结构方程模型（Structural Equation Modeling，SEM）；在此基础上，构建了湟水流域的水环境承载力综合评价体系，并获得各指标权重，进而利用向量模法对流域水环境承载状态进行了综合评价.结果表明：SEM模型能够定量反映土地利用/景观格局及污染物排放因素与水环境承载状态的相关关系；SEM模型的路径分析可为水环境承载力综合评价指标体系的建立提供科学依据；由SEM模型得到的路径影响相关系数，可为权重的确定提供新的科学方法；研究区16个控制子单元呈上、中、下游水环境承载状态逐渐变差的梯度特征；最后，针对湟水流域不同区域的社会、经济、环境和资源差异，从流域水环境承载力双向调控的角度，提出改善水环境承载状态的相关建议，进而为流域水系统持续协调发展提供精细化管理支撑.

• Abstract：In this study, we developed a structural equation model (SEM) to comprehensively examine the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) in the upstream areas of Xiaoxia Bridge Section, Huangshui River Basin. The SEM model accounted for the weight of WECC and environmental pressures within its index system. Moreover, we obtained the weight of each indicator by establishing a comprehensive evaluation system of WECC; and evaluated the carrying status of the water environment using the vector modulus method. We found that the SEM model sufficiently represented the correlation between various landscape patterns (pollutant discharges) and the water environmental carrying states. Based on path analysis, we confirmed that the SEM model provides a scientific basis for establishing an index system for comprehensive evaluation of the WECC, while the corresponding correlation coefficient is useful for determining the relative contribution of each indicator. We also found that the carrying status of the water environment in 16 control subunits of the study section deteriorated gradually from the upstream to the downstream. We finally discussed some plausible measures to improve the carrying status of the water environment from bidirectional regulation perspective (in accordance to the regional society, economy, resource and environment) in order to achieve sustainable development and management of the water environment in the river basin.

• Key words：water environmental carrying capacity  structural equation modeling  bidirectional regulation  Huangshui River Basin

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