• 关键词：PM_2.5污染  暴露反应系数  死亡人数  京津冀大气污染传输通道

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.41671536，41501588）；河南省高等学校重点科研项目（No.18A170002）

• 谢志祥
• 河南大学环境与规划学院, 黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室, 开封 475004

• 秦耀辰
• 1. 河南大学环境与规划学院, 黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室, 开封 475004;2. 城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心, 郑州 450046

• 郑智成
• 河南大学环境与规划学院, 黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室, 开封 475004

• 李阳
• 河南大学环境与规划学院, 黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室, 开封 475004

• 摘要：基于Web of science数据库搜集的1442篇文献资料，采用Meta分析方法确定PM_2.5污染与居民不同健康终点之间的暴露反应系数.在此基础上，本文选取2015年PM_2.5浓度遥感数据、公里格网人口数据及人口死亡统计数据，借助Poisson回归模型评估京津冀大气污染传输通道城市1 km×1 km尺度上PM_2.5污染的死亡效应.结果表明：1PM_2.5污染与人口总死亡率、循环系统疾病死亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率和肺癌死亡率等存在显著的暴露反应关系，其中，PM_2.5浓度每增加10 μg·m^-3，对应健康终点死亡率分别上升5.67%（95% Confidence Interval（CI）：3.87%~8.29%）、6.93%（95% CI：3.92%~12.25%）、4.78%（95% CI：1.31%~17.51%）和9.55%（95% CI：3.67%~24.86%）.2PM_2.5污染成为诱致人口死亡的重要因素，2015年京津冀大气污染传输通道城市PM_2.5污染造成的死亡人数为307599人，占据总死亡人数的28.64%.其中，死于循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病和肺癌的人数分别为183084、21096和32203人.3实施严格的PM_2.5浓度控制目标将给居民带来极大的健康收益，如果能够达成世界卫生组织4个阶段的PM_2.5浓度控制目标，京津冀大气污染传输通道城市可避免的死亡人数分别为144236、197167、253180和282401人，与基准年相比分别下降46.89%、64.10%、82.31%和91.81%.

• Abstract：A set of exposure-response coefficients between PM_2.5 pollution and different health endpoints were determined through the meta-analysis method based on 1442 studies collected from the Web of Science database. With the data of remotely-sensed PM_2.5 concentrations, gridded population densities and demographic death statistics for 2015, Poisson regression model was used to assess the death effect of PM_2.5 pollution on residents in cities of atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district at 1 km resolution. We found that significant exposure-response relationships existed between PM_2.5 pollution and a set of different health endpoints, including the mortality rates of total population, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Each increase of 10 μg·m^-3 in PM_2.5 concentration has led to an increase of 5.67% (95% Confidence Interval or CI:3.87%~8.29%), 6.93% (95% CI:3.92%~12.25%), 4.78% (95% CI:1.31%~17.51%) and 9.55% (95% CI:3.67%~24.86%) for above-mentioned health endpoints, respectively. We also noticed that PM_2.5 pollution was an important factor for inducing human deaths. In 2015, the number of deaths attributed to PM_2.5 pollution was about 307599, accounting for 28.64% of the total death toll. Among which, the number of deaths from circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and lung cancer were 183084, 21096 and 32203, respectively. We have confident in that great health benefits for residents could be realized by enforcing strict control targets of PM_2.5 concentration. If the four-stage control targets of PM_2.5 concentration specified by the World Health Organization (WHO) can be met, the numbers of deaths that can be reduced in cities of atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district are estimated to be 144236, 197167, 253180 and 282401, respectively, and the corresponding reduction rates would be 46.89%, 64.10%, 82.31% and 91.81%, in comparison with the figures of the base year.

• Key words：PM_2.5 pollution  exposure response coefficient  death effect  atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district

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