马冰然,曾逸凡,曾维华,崔丹,胡雯,陈岩,何跃君.气候变化背景下城市应对极端降水的适应性方案研究——以西宁海绵城市试点区为例[J].环境科学学报,2019,39(4):1361-1370
气候变化背景下城市应对极端降水的适应性方案研究——以西宁海绵城市试点区为例
- Adapt to urban extreme precipitation under climate change: A pilot scale study in Xining, China
- 基金项目：青海省重大科技专项：湟水流域水-气-土一体化环境管理体系及污染控制关键技术集成与示范（No.2018-SF-A4）
- 胡雯
- 南水北调中线干线工程建设管理局河北分局顺平管理处, 保定 072250
- 何跃君
- 1. 北华航天工业学院, 廊坊 065000;2. 青海省生态环境规划和环保技术中心, 西宁 810007
- 摘要：气候变化将导致极端天气事件频率与强度的增加，城市迫切需要对未来的极端天气做出适应性反应.因此，为了找到应对未来暴雨极端天气的最佳适应性方案，明确不同方案对暴雨极端天气的缓解程度，本研究基于西宁市海绵城市试点区50年（1966-2015）的气象资料，利用Pearson-Ⅲ概率分布和线性趋势估计法预测了该区未来50年的极端降水量，进而利用SWMM模型模拟未来50年极端降水条件下的城市内涝情况，并根据模拟结果提出基于低影响开发（LID）配置和管网改造的城市内涝适应方案.这些方案包括：局部布设LID措施、局部布设LID措施结合局部管网改造、全局布设LID措施、全局布设LID措施结合满流管网改造.再次利用SWMM模型对这些方案进行模拟，并评价它们应对未来极端降水的能力.结果表明，全局布设LID措施和满流管网改造的效果最好，全局布设LID措施的效果和局部布设LID措施结合局部管网改造的效果相近.然而，管网改造无法有效储存和利用雨水资源，因此，全局布设LID措施将成为城市应对极端降雨的重要适应性方案.
- Abstract：Climate change would result in the increase of extreme weather events. Correspondingly, the increase in extreme precipitation and rapid urbanization would cause more serious waterlogging problems. To address these challenges, it is necessary to develop an adaptive solution to tackle the potential problems of extreme weather events in the future. Based on the observed meteorological data (period:1966-2015) of a sponge city in Xining (Qinghai Province, China), we adopted the Pearson-Ⅲ probabilistic distributions method and the linear trend estimation method to estimate the daily maximum precipitation, as extreme precipitation, of the year of 2065. Furthermore, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was applied to simulate and analyze the urban waterlogging problems under future extreme precipitation events. To cope with the urban waterlogging problems, we put forward some climate adaptation schemes involving the deployment of Low Impact Development (LID) measures and pipe network transformation (PNT). Specifically, the schemes include local-area LID measures deployment, local-area LID measures deployment with local PNT, whole-area LID measures deployment and whole-area LID measures deployment with full flow PNT. The SWMM model was used to simulate these counter-measures, and the ability of these schemes on coping with the extreme precipitation waterlogging problems was evaluated using the entropy weight method. The evaluation results show that the scheme of whole-area LID measures deployment with full flow PNT would be the most effective measure on handling the city's waterlogging problems. The effect of the whole-area LID measures would be close to the effect of the scheme of local LID measures deployment with local PNT. However, PNT could not store and utilize the rainwater resources. Hence, the scheme of whole-area LID measures deployment should be adopted for managing the challenges of urban extreme precipitation events in the future.
