研究论文
任梦磊,杨斌,李珺.考虑能源结构和气候因素的电动汽车温室气体影响[J].环境科学学报,2019,39(7):2434-2441
考虑能源结构和气候因素的电动汽车温室气体影响
- Greenhouse gases impact of electric vehicles considering the influence of energy structure and climate
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.71471110）
- 作者
- 单位
- 任梦磊
- 上海海事大学物流科学与工程研究院, 上海 201306
- 杨斌
- 上海海事大学物流科学与工程研究院, 上海 201306
- 李珺
- 上海海事大学物流科学与工程研究院, 上海 201306
- 摘要：电动汽车因在使用过程中近似零排放而被认为是节约能源和减少碳排量的有力工具.但我国的电力结构是以火力发电为主，这会使电力在生产阶段排放大量的二氧化碳.为进一步研究电动汽车的环境友好性，本文构建了一种改进的电动汽车排放指数模型，使用2017年的电网统计数据及气候统计数据，就能源结构和气候这两个关键因素对我国31个省市分区域展开实证研究.结果表明，电动汽车对温室气体产生的影响存在明显的空间变化，且其与能源结构中火力发电占比密切相关.另外，对于全年温度变化范围较宽的省市，气候因素可能是使电动汽车和燃油车的碳排量达到排放平衡点的关键因素.基于此，扩大电力结构中清洁能源使用比例、改善电池性能、完善相关政策体制是促进今后我国电动汽车清洁、低碳发展的重要途径.
- Abstract：Electric vehicles are considered to be a powerful tool for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction due to their near-zero emissions during use. However, China's electric power structure is dominated by thermal power generation, which will cause a large amount of CO2 emission during the production phase of electricity. In order to get a deeper understanding on the environmental friendliness of electric vehicles, this paper establishes an improved electric vehicle emission index model and then uses 2017 power grid statistical data and climate data to calculate the electric vehicle emission index based on the model. Also, this paper constructs evidence-based research for 31 provinces in China by analyzing the energy structure factor and climate factor. The results show that the impact of electric vehicles on greenhouse gases has significant spatial variations, and it is closely related to the proportion of thermal power generation in the energy structure. Besides, for provinces which has a wider range of temperature variations throughout the year, climate factors could be the critical factor in achieving the balance point of carbon emission between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Based on these, expanding the proportion of clean energy usage in the electric power structure, optimizing battery performance, and improving relevant policies promptly are essential ways to promote the future development of clean and low-carbon electric vehicles in China.
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