王勇,许子易,张亚新.中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测——基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究[J].环境科学学报,2019,39(12):4284-4292
中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测——基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究
- Influencing factors and combined scenario prediction of carbon emission peaks in megacities in China: Based on Threshold-STIRPAT Model
- 基金项目：国家社科基金后期资助项目（No.19FTJB004）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目（No.18YJC910013）；辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题（No.2020lslktyb-036）；辽宁省教育厅项目（No.LN2019Q48）；东北财经大学校级研究生教改项目（No.yjzx201945）
- 王勇
- 1. 东北财经大学统计学院, 大连 116025;2. 东北财经大学博士后科研流动站, 大连 116025
- 摘要：城市是中国碳排放的重要来源，而超大城市的碳达峰研究对国内其他城市和全国能否实现碳达峰目标具有重要的现实意义.以北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津和重庆等6个超大城市为研究对象，能源强度为门限变量，建立门限-STIRPAT模型，首先确定6个超大城市碳排放的驱动因素，然后对27种情景下的各城市碳排放达峰进行预测.研究结果表明：①人口、人均GDP和能源强度对各城市碳排放起到正向促进效应，人口的影响效应最大，其次是能源强度，人均GDP对碳排放的影响最小.②能源强度对二氧化碳排放的影响呈阶段性变化特征.③北京、上海和重庆在高能源强度下降率的情景下，已经达峰；天津、除最宽松的高-高-高情景外的广州和深圳会在2030年前实现达峰.如果能源强度以中速率下降，6个城市碳排放不能保证一定能在2030年前达峰.如果能源强度以低速率下降，6个城市均不能在2030年前达峰.本研究有利于明确超大城市碳排放的影响因素，对其他城市尽快实现碳排放达峰具有借鉴意义，为全国实现碳达峰目标提供可行的研究思路.
- Abstract：Cities are an important source of carbon emissions in China, and the research on the carbon peaking of megacities is of great practical significance for other cities and the whole country to achieve the carbon peaking goal. Six megacities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing, were taken as research objects, with energy intensity as the threshold variable. The threshold -STIRPAT model was established to first determine the driving factors of carbon emission in six megacities, and then predict the peak carbon emission of each city under 27 scenarios. The results showed that:①Population, per capita GDP and energy intensity played a positive role in promoting carbon emissions in megacities, with the largest impact of population, followed by energy intensity, and the least impact of per capita GDP. ②The impact of energy intensity on carbon dioxide emissions was characterized by a staged change. ③Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing had reached their carbon peaks in the scenario of high energy intensity decline rates; Tianjin, Guangzhou (other than the most relaxed high-high-high scenario) and Shenzhen (other than the most relaxed high-high-high scenario) can reach their peaks by 2030. If energy intensity declines at a medium rate, carbon emissions in six megacities cannot be guaranteed to peak by 2030. If energy intensity declines at a low rate, none of the six megacities can reach their peaks by 2030. This study is helpful to clarify the influencing factors of the carbon emission of megacities, which has reference significance for other cities to achieve the carbon emission peaks as soon as possible, and provides feasible research ideas for the national goal of the carbon emission peaks.
