张轩瑜,宋晓军,虞吉海.时空效应下PM2.5的环境库兹涅茨曲线——基于动态空间面板视角[J].环境科学学报,2020,40(1):315-324
时空效应下PM2.5的环境库兹涅茨曲线——基于动态空间面板视角
- Environmental Kuznets curve of PM2.5 under spatial and temporal effects: From spatial dynamic panel data approach
- 基金项目：国家重点研发计划项目（No.2016YFC0207705）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（No.71925006，71973005）
- 摘要：经济发展与环境保护的平衡一直是人们关心的话题，为分析空气质量水平与经济发展程度之间的关系，即环境库兹涅茨曲线，本研究利用2013-2017年中国省级PM2.5污染数据，运用动态空间面板数据模型，从而控制相邻省份的空气质量水平与本地上期污染水平，实证分析中国PM2.5环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性及空间溢出性.结果表明：①PM2.5的环境库兹涅茨曲线在省级基础上表现为倒U形，即随着初期经济水平的发展，大气污染会不断增加，在经济发展到一定水平后，大气污染开始降低；②东部、中部省份的空气污染表现与全国一致，而西部省份尚无显著趋势，只有第一产业产量与空气污染水平呈负相关；③中国整体的PM2.5污染具有显著的空间溢出性；④对二氧化硫和氮氧化物进行环境库兹涅茨曲线研究，发现全国平均而言还处在大气污染的上升阶段.研究表明，中国各地区处在大气污染发展路径的不同阶段上，而且空气污染的治理模式应采取区域联合分块治理的策略.
- Abstract：The balance between economic development and environmental protection has always been a topic of concern. This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between air quality levels and economic development, i.e., the environmental Kuznets curve, by using China's provincial PM2.5 pollution data from 2013 to 2017. We use the spatial dynamic panel data model to control for the spillover effect and lag dependence, and empirically analyze the Chinese PM2.5 environmental Kuznets curve. Our results show that ① the environmental Kuznets curve of PM2.5 in China is inverted U-shaped on the provincial level, which indicates that the pollution level will first increase but then decrease after reaching a certain level of economic development; ② the air pollution in the eastern and central province have a similar pattern as the national environmental Kuznets curve, while that of the western provinces does not have a significant pattern yet, only that the primary industry output is negatively correlated with air pollution levels; ③the regression results show that China's overall PM2.5 pollution has significant spillover effects; ④ the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in China is still in the rising stage of the environmental Kuznets curve. The results of this paper show that China's regions are at different stages of the air pollution development path, and that they shall cooperate with each other to control the air pollution levels.
