付宏臣,孙艳玲,陈莉,张辉,高爽,毛健,梁爽,李晓丽,滕宇.基于AOD数据与GWR模型的2016年新疆地区PM2.5和PM10时空分布特征[J].环境科学学报,2020,40(1):27-35
基于AOD数据与GWR模型的2016年新疆地区PM2.5和PM10时空分布特征
- Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 and PM10 in Xinjiang region in 2016 based on AOD data and GWR model
- 基金项目：国家重点研发计划青年项目（No.2016YFC0201700）；天津市科技计划项目（No.16YFXTSF00330）；天津市自然科学基金项目（No.17JCYBJC42900）
- 付宏臣
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 孙艳玲
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 陈莉
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 张辉
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 高爽
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 毛健
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 梁爽
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 李晓丽
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 滕宇
- 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
- 摘要：PM2.5与PM10的时空分布特征及其相关性是大气颗粒物研究的主要内容，传统方法是基于监测站点数据进行分析，难以揭示PM2.5与PM10时空分布的区域特征.为此，本文利用地理加权回归模型估算了2016年新疆地区PM2.5与PM10的月均浓度，在此基础上对区域尺度的PM2.5与PM10浓度特征进行分析.结果表明：地理加权回归相较最小二乘回归的拟合精度更高，PM2.5和PM10的决定系数分别为0.93和0.96，且误差较小；PM2.5和PM10年均浓度分别为70.88 μg·m-3和194.53 μg·m-3，说明大气颗粒物污染严重，且空间分布呈西南高、东北低的特征；PM2.5和PM10季节浓度均为春季最高，夏季最低；PM2.5月均浓度2月最高，9月最低，PM10月均浓度3月最高，8月最低；PM2.5与PM10年均浓度的相关系数r为0.95，相关性较高；PM2.5/PM10冬季最高为51%，其余季节小于50%，说明冬季PM2.5对大气颗粒物污染贡献率较高，其余季节则以可吸入颗粒物中的粗颗粒贡献为主.
- Abstract：The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the correlation of PM2.5 and PM10 are the main contents of atmospheric particulate matter research. The traditional method is based on monitoring site analysis, which is difficult to reveal the regional characteristics of PM2.5 and PM10 spatial distribution. In this paper, the monthly average concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 in Xinjiang in 2016 was estimated by using the geo-weighted regression model. Based on this, the concentration characteristics of PM2.5 and PM10 at regional scale were analyzed. The results showed that the result predicted by geo-weighted regression had higher precision than that of the least squares regression, with the determination coefficients of 0.93 and 0.96 for PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, The error was relatively smaller than the error obtained by least squares regression; The average annual concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 70.88 μg·m-3 and 194.53 μg·m-3, respectively. The atmospheric particulate matter pollution was serious, and the spatial distribution was high in the southwest and low in the northeast. The seasonal concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were the highest in spring and the lowest in summer. The monthly average concentration of PM2.5 was the highest in February and the lowest in September. The monthly average concentration of PM10 was the highest in March and the lowest in August. The correlation coefficient r between annual average concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 was high with the value of 0.95; The ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was highest in winter, with the value of 51%. Ratios in other seasons were less than 50%, which indicated that PM2.5 had higher contribution rate to atmospheric particulate pollution in winter, Contributes most to the inhalable particles in other seasons.
