杨海燕,孙晓博,程小文,周广宇,孙广东.基于VIKOR法的潍坊市水资源承载力综合评价[J].环境科学学报,2020,40(2):716-723
基于VIKOR法的潍坊市水资源承载力综合评价
- Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Weifang based on the VIKOR method
- 杨海燕
- 北京建筑大学北京应对气候变化研究和人才培养基地, 北京 100044
- 孙晓博
- 北京建筑大学北京应对气候变化研究和人才培养基地, 北京 100044
- 程小文
- 中国城市规划设计研究院, 北京 100044
- 周广宇
- 中国城市规划设计研究院, 北京 100044
- 孙广东
- 中国城市规划设计研究院, 北京 100044
- 摘要：水资源承载力综合评价通常涉及到社会、经济、资源和环境等多种因素的影响.多准则妥协解排序法（VIKOR）可协调处理多种因素间的相互关系，是评价城市水资源承载力的有效手段之一.本文利用VIKOR法对潍坊市水资源承载力进行综合评价，通过构建水资源承载力综合评价指标体系，利用CRITIC法计算权重，标准化数据并进行分析计算和排序，以利益比率Qi作为综合评价值，Qi值越小，表明水资源承载力越高.结果发现，在2008-2017年，潍坊市水资源承载力综合评价值呈下降趋势，从2008年的0.7378下降至2017年的0.0000，表明潍坊市水资源承载力稳步提高.通过分析潍坊市水资源承载力各子系统的变化趋势发现，潍坊市水资源承载能力依然有较大的提升空间.通过对2017年潍坊市各市、区、县水资源承载力进行对比可知，诸城市、青州市、安丘市和临朐县综合评价值较低，分别为0、0.1645、0.2267和0.2503，说明水资源承载力较高；潍城区、坊子区、寒亭区和奎文区综合评价值较高，分别为0.3475、0.4739、0.5938和0.9131，说明水资源承载力较低.表明潍坊市部分地区产业结构和布局与水资源条件不相匹配，水资源开发利用水平超出当地水资源承载力.
- Abstract：Water resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation usually involves many factors including society, economy, resource and environment. The VIKOR method, which can coordinate the relationship among these facors, has become one of the effective means to evaluate of urban water resources carrying capacity. The VIKOR method was adopted in this study to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Weifang. By constructing a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for water resources carrying capacity using the CRITIC method to calculate weights, standardizing, analyzing, calculating and ranking the data. Taking the VIKOR index Qi as the comprehensive evaluation value, the lower the Qi value, the higher the water resource carrying capacity. It is concluded that during 2008-2017, the comprehensive evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity in Weifang showed an downward trend from 0.7378 in 2008 to 0.0000 in 2017, indicating that water resources carrying capacity of Weifang has steadily increased. By analyzing the trends of various subsystems of water resources carrying capacity in Weifang, it is concluded that the water resources carrying capacity of Weifang still has a lot of room for improvement. Through the analysis of water resources carrying capacity of cities, districts and counties in Weifang in 2017, it is concluded that the comprehensive evaluation values of water resources carrying capacity in Zhucheng, Qingzhou, Anqiu and Linqu are lower (0.0000, 0.1645, 0.2267 and 0.2503, respectively), water resources carrying capacity are higher, while the comprehensive evaluation values of water resources carrying capacity in Weicheng, Fangzi, Hanting, and Kuiwen are higher (0.3475, 0.4739, 0.5938 and 0.9131, respectively), water resources carrying capacity are lower, indicating that the industrial structure and layout of some areas of Weifang do not meet the water resources conditions and water resources development. The utilization level of these counties exceeds their local water resources carrying capacity.
