• 关键词：全球  生活垃圾  处置方式  影响因素  相关性分析  回归分析

• 基金项目：国家重点研发计划"固废资源化"重点专项（No.2018YFC1900700）；上海市科学技术委员会科研项目（No.18DZ1206700）

• 曹玮
• 上海大学环境与化学工程学院, 上海 200444

• 王忠昊
• 上海大学环境与化学工程学院, 上海 200444

• 黄景能
• 上海大学环境与化学工程学院, 上海 200444

• 吴冰思
• 上海市环境工程设计科学研究院有限公司, 上海 200232

• 邰俊
• 上海市环境工程设计科学研究院有限公司, 上海 200232

• 赵军
• 上海大学环境与化学工程学院, 上海 200444

• 钱光人
• 上海大学环境与化学工程学院, 上海 200444

• 摘要：近年来，国内外众多学者从不同角度运用不同方法探究城市生活垃圾产生量的影响因素，但鲜见对生活垃圾处置方式的影响因素进行分析研究.本文以世界银行2018年颁布的《what a waste 2.0》中140个国家数据为基础，删掉数据年份较久远以及缺少GDP数据的6个国家，根据欧盟统计局、各国政府环保部门和统计部门网站以及相关年度报告，对所有国家数据逐一排查进行核实，并修正了40余国家生活垃圾处置数据，以134个国家在地理、经济和社会层面的5项指标为研究基础，选用相关性分析和logistic回归分析等研究方法，探究5种生活垃圾处置方式和影响因素之间的规律.主要结论如下：①生活垃圾开放式倾倒、填埋处置与人均国土面积无显著相关性；人均GDP达到2万美元以上的国家，基本实现"零倾倒"，填埋占比也随人均GDP增长逐渐下降；城市化水平与是否采用开放式倾倒呈显著负相关；②人均GDP在2万美元以下或城市化水平在40%以下的国家，基本为"零焚烧"；在不考虑"零焚烧"国家的情形下，焚烧处置主要集中在人均国土面积0~3 hm²的国家；人均GDP和受教育程度的高低是各国是否采用焚烧的主要影响因素；③资源化利用水平与人均国土面积呈负相关，而与人均GDP、城市化水平、受教育程度和废物法律法规体系呈正相关，其中法律法规对其影响力较小；人均GDP达到2万美元以上的国家，资源化利用率基本超过40%；受教育程度同样是影响各国是否采用资源化利用的主要因素；④其它处置方式与五项影响指标均呈现负相关；城市化水平为是否存在其它处置方式的决定因素，城市化水平达到80%以上时，其占比基本为0.

• Abstract：In recent years, different methods have been used to explore the influencing factors of municipal solid waste production from different perspectives, but few analyzed the driving factors of waste disposal patterns. Therefore, based on the data of 140 countries in the "what a waste 2.0" issued by the World Bank in 2018 (six countries were deleted because of out of date or missing GDP data), the data of each country was verified by using European Union Statistics, the department of environmental protection or statistics, and related annual reports. The data on waste disposal in more than 40 countries were revised. Five indicators were used to focus on geographic, economic and social properties of the 134 countries.This study used correlation analysis, logistic regression to investigate the relationship between the waste disposal patterns and its influencing factors.The conclusions are as follows: ① The land area per capita has no significant correlation with landfill and incineration. Countries with GDP per capita more than ＄20,000 showed "zero open dump" on the whole, and the proportion of landfills has gradually declined with GDP growth. The higher level of urbanization often lead to the lower percentage of open dump. ② Countries with GDP per capita below ＄20,000 or urbanization level above 40% are basically "zero incineration". Taking no account of "zero incineration" countries, incineration disposal is mainly concentrated in countries with land area per capita of 0~3 hm². The GDP per capita and education are the decisive factors of whether using incineration or not. ③ The waste recycling rate is negatively related to the land area per capita, but positively related with GDP per capita, urbanization, education and environmental regulations. The waste recycling rate would exceed 40% for countries with GDP per capita more than ＄20,000. Education is also an important index to affect whether a country use waste recycling.④ The level of urbanization is a decisive factor for the appear of other disposal way. When urbanization level becomes more than 80%, the proportion of other disposal way would close to zero.

• Key words：global  municipal solid waste  disposal methods  influencing factors  correlation analysis  regression analysis

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