李阳,陈敏鹏.中国农业源甲烷和氧化亚氮排放的影响因素[J].环境科学学报,2021,41(2):710-717
中国农业源甲烷和氧化亚氮排放的影响因素
- Influencing factors of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural sources in China
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.71573260）；国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（No.2018ZX07301007）
- 李阳
- 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院, 北京 100872
- 陈敏鹏
- 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院, 北京 100872
- 摘要：基于清单方法对中国的甲烷（CH4）及氧化亚氮（N2O）等农业源非二氧化碳（CO2）温室气体（GHG）排放情况进行核算研究，通过引入Tapio弹性脱钩理论和对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法研究了中国农业源CH4和N2O排放的影响因素.结果表明：①1980—2018年中国农业源CH4和N2O排放量由0.56×109 t CO2-eq上升至0.73×109 t CO2-eq；②1980—2018年中国农业源CH4和N2O排放随着农业总产值增长而缓慢增加，整体呈弱脱钩状态，但其脱钩状态稳定性较差；③从LMDI因素分解角度看，经济因素和人口规模因素对中国农业源CH4和N2O排放呈正效应，经济因素影响最大；效率因素和结构因素均对中国农业源CH4和N2O排放有减缓作用，其中，效率因素为主要抑制因素；④结构因素、效率因素和人口规模因素对脱钩努力的影响程度为效率因素>结构因素>人口规模因素.
- Abstract：This paper applies the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inventory method to estimate the methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from agricultural sources in China. By integrating Tapio's elastic decoupling theory analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, this study conducts a decomposition analysis and identifies the influence factor of CH4 and N2O emissions from agricultural sources in China. Results showed that: ① From 1980 to 2018, the CH4 and N2O emissions from agricultural sources in China rose from 0.56×109 t CO2-eq to 0.73×109 t CO2-eq; ② From 1980 to 2018, China's agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions slowly increased with the growth of gross agricultural output, showing a weak decoupling effect. However, the stability of the decoupled state was poor; ③ Economic factors have played the most important role in driving CH4 and N2O emissions from agricultural sources in China. Population size also has a positive effect. Efficiency factors and structural factors all play important roles in mitigating emissions, and efficiency improvement could effectively offset the emission growth due to increased scale of population and agricultural outputs; ④ The decoupling efforts of structural factors, efficiency factors and population size factors on CH4 and N2O emissions from agricultural sources in China are "efficiency factors> structure factors> population size factors".
