冯春莉,李润奎.基于土地利用回归模型的北京市2013—2019年大气污染时空变化分析[J].环境科学学报,2021,41(4):1231-1238
基于土地利用回归模型的北京市2013—2019年大气污染时空变化分析
- Spatiotemporal variation analysis of air pollution from 2013 to 2019 in Beijing based on land use regression model
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（No.41771435）；国家重点研发计划（No.2017YFB0503605）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助（No.E0E48914X2）
- 冯春莉
- 江苏省徐州环境监测中心, 徐州 221000
- 李润奎
- 2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049;3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 1001012.
- 摘要：在近年来大力控制大气污染的背景下，通过历史观测数据分析污染物的时空变化特征，有助于总结以往控制的成效，并为制定下一阶段措施提供科学依据.本研究基于北京市大气环境质量监测站点2013—2019年数据，分析了6种常规大气污染物（PM2.5、NO2、O3、PM10、SO2、CO）的时间变化趋势，并构建了2013和2019年PM2.5、NO2和O3 3种主要污染物的土地利用回归模型（Land use regression model， LUR），对它们详细的空间分布及变化特征进行了分析.结果表明，污染物浓度在过去7年中发生了重大变化，除O3增长，其余5种污染物下降明显.不同城区间的差异在迅速缩小，污染物浓度在空间上趋于均匀.PM2.5呈明显的南高北低，城区NO2浓度显著高于郊区和山区，O3在主城区尤其是道路附近浓度较低.约50%的区域PM2.5下降30 μg·m-3以上，约40%的区域NO2下降幅度为5~15 μg·m-3，道路附近O3升幅在20 μg·m-3以内.研究结果揭示出北京市及其周边地区大气污染治理近年来取得了卓有成效的成绩，但同时也面临着O3浓度升高的新挑战.
- Abstract：Great efforts have been taken to control air pollution in China in recent years. In such context, analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of air pollutants through historical observation data is helpful to summarize the previous control achievements as well as to provide scientific basis for the control measures in the next stage. This study was conducted based on the monitoring data from 2013 to 2019 in Beijing. The trend of six atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, O3, PM10, SO2, and CO) was analyzed. Land use regression models were built for three major pollutants, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 in 2013 and 2019, to obtain their spatial distributions and variations. The results showed that the concentrations of air pollutants changed significantly in the past seven years. Except for O3, all the remaining five pollutants showed a decreasing trend. The spatial variations between districts were turning smaller and getting more homogeneous. PM2.5 showed clear south-north decreasing trend, NO2 in urban areas was much higher than that in suburbs and mountainous areas, and O3 was relatively low in urban areas, especially near roads. PM2.5 decreased by more than 30 μg·m-3 in about half of the study area. NO2 decreased by 5~15 μg·m-3 in about 40% of the area, while O3 was observed increasing along roadside by less than 20 μg·m-3. The results revealed that Beijing and its surrounding areas had made remarkable achievements in air pollution control in the past few years, while O3 is emerging as a new challenge.
