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研究报告

Mitigation strategy of Eastern China based on energy-source carbon emission estimation

摘要：中国东部的11个省市是中国经济最发达的地区，其碳排放量约占全国碳排放量的1/2.随着气候变化的加剧和国际社会的关注，中国政府制定了区域差异化的达峰目标，因此，预测该地区碳排放对于评估中国能否实现达峰目标具有重要意义.本文基于中国东部11省市1997-2017年的面板数据，采用STIRPAT模型来预测不同情景下的碳排放趋势，并据此分析东部地区整体碳排放达峰的可能性.结果发现，有7个省市碳排放可能在2030年之前达峰，其中，北京、上海将最早出现碳排放峰值，达峰时间可能为2022年；然而，另外4个省市碳排放较难在2030年之前达峰.从东部地区整体来看，该地区碳排放达峰时间在2028-2033年，峰值为5018.03×10⁶~5497.20×10⁶ t.因此，东部地区整体碳排放可以在2030年左右达峰，为较好地实现中国整体碳排放达峰目标奠定了基础；此外，考虑到东部各省市的碳排放达峰情况存在差异，应根据各省市的实际情况制定差异化的达峰目标.

Abstract：Eastern China is the most developed region in our nation, and its carbon emission accounts for half of the total carbon emission of China. Therefore, it is of great significance to predict the carbon emissions from the region for assessing whether China can achieve the peaking target or not. Based on the panel data of 11 eastern provinces from 1997 to 2017, this paper uses STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emissions of the 11 eastern provinces under different scenarios, and analyzes the possible peaks of carbon emission. It is found that among the 11 eastern provinces, 7 provinces may reach their emission peaks before 2030. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai will have the carbon emission peak early with the peak time at 2022, while the other 4 provinces are difficult to reach the peak before 2030. As a whole, the peaking time of carbon emission in the eastern China is between 2028 and 2033, and the peak is between 5018.03×10⁶ t to 5497.20×10⁶ t. Overall, it is possible for the eastern China to reach the emission peak around 2030, which is important to achieve the China's peaking target. Meanwhile, considering the differences of the carbon emission peak, China should formulate differentiated mitigation targets according to the local situations of these eastern provinces.

Key words：Eastern China STIRPAT model scenario analysis carbon emission peak prediction