• 关键词：环境污染胁迫  驱动因素  空间效应  空间杜宾模型  长江经济带

• 基金项目：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）（No.XDA23020101）；国家自然科学基金项目（No.41971164）

• 周侃
• 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049

• 伍健雄
• 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049

• 樊杰
• 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049

• 梁育填
• 中山大学地理科学与规划学院, 广州 510275

• 摘要：污染物排放基数大、内生与跨区排污累积是长江经济带污染防治面临的严峻现实，高强度环境污染胁迫过程已成为当前生态文明建设的重要障碍.本文以长江经济带127个地市级及以上单元为实证案例，选取化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物4项污染物指标，在基于熵值法的环境污染胁迫指数（EPSI）测度基础上，采用空间杜宾模型，定量分解环境污染胁迫的驱动因素及空间效应，为制定面向污染源管控的环境规制提供科学参考.研究发现：①2011—2015年长江经济带环境污染胁迫程度降低4.8%，胁迫程度由上游向下游递增，其中，上游干流、太湖流域及下游干流的胁迫程度较为突出.②长江经济带环境污染胁迫程度整体趋稳、局部改善，高污染胁迫区在长三角地区集中分布，滇川贵渝、湘鄂赣、江浙沪皖等交界地区，以及昆明至重庆一带已形成的高胁迫区亦是未来管制重点.③环境污染胁迫过程具有显著空间溢出效应，本地胁迫程度增加的同时引起邻地胁迫加剧.随着环境管控趋紧，长江经济带环境污染胁迫的外部性有所缓解.④人口规模和城镇化水平是驱动本地胁迫程度提升的重要因素，二者还通过空间溢出效应作用于周边地区，而工业化、农业经济份额、内外资等因素仅能作用于本地的环境污染胁迫过程.长江经济带环境污染胁迫驱动因素的多元化趋势表明，应实施系统化、源头化综合治理以缓解环境污染胁迫态势，需引导绿色生产生活方式、提升建设开发行为的环境效益、规避外资驱动的跨区污染转移、发挥国有资本在环境处置与保护过程中的示范作用.

• Abstract：The high intensity of environmental pollution stress poses a serious obstacle for the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to further construct ecological civilization, with large-scale pollutant emissions and endogenous/cross-regional pollution accumulation. Taking 127 cities at prefecture-level in the YREB as empirical cases, this study took chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides as four indicators to identify the driving factors of environmental pollution stress and demonstrated their spatial effects, using Spatial Durbin Model on the basis of entropy-based environmental pollution stress index (EPSI). The findings provide a future reference to governments for formulating environmental regulations on pollution source control. The results show that: ①During 2000—2015, the EPSI in the YREB was reduced by 4.8%, and the stress level showed an increase from the upper to lower reaches. In 2015, the average EPSI of the upper, middle, and lower reaches were 0.453, 0.539, and 0.578, respectively. Especially, the mainstream areas of both upper and lower reaches, and Taihu Lake basin, experienced the highest level of environmental pollution stress. ②Overall, the environmental pollution stress in the YREB was broadly stable but partially relieved. High-stress areas were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, the border areas of Yunnan-Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, Hunan-Hubei-Jiangxi, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai-Anhui, which will be under the strict environmental regulation in the future. ③Environmental pollution stress has a significant spatial effect, namely, the increase of local stress would cause a rise of stress level in adjacent areas. However, along with tightening environmental regulation and control, this effect will wear off. ④As the key factors causing environmental pollution stress, the population scale and the urbanization level not only drive the increase of the local stress level, but also affect the adjacent areas through the spatial spillover effects, while industrialization level, agricultural economic share, domestic and foreign investment only affect the local environmental pollution stress process. Furthermore, the diversity of the driving factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt indicates that the systemic and source-based comprehensive management should be implemented to reduce the stress of environmental pollution, and it is necessary to advocate green and sustainable production and lifestyle, improve the environmental benefits of regional socio-economic development and massive construction, avoid foreign-driven trans-regional pollution, and ensure that the state-owned capital plays a leading role in environmental protection and management.

• Key words：environmental pollution stress  driving factors  spatial effects  Spatial Durbin Model  Yangtze River Economic Belt

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