• 关键词：新型城市化  二氧化碳  地理加权回归模型  时空变化  区域差异

• 基金项目：复旦-丁铎尔中心生态环境与人文社科交叉研究项目（No.FTC98503A03）

• 马明义
• 复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200438

• 郑君薇
• 复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200438

• 马涛
• 1. 复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200438;2. 复旦大学城市环境管理研究中心, 上海 200438

• 摘要：城市化和碳排放之间关系密切，现有研究多从单一维度来衡量城市化，而忽略了城市化的多维性.本文从人口、经济、社会、空间和生态5个维度建立了新型城市化的评价体系，利用中国30个省、自治区和直辖市2004—2016年的面板数据，基于熵值法和地理加权回归（GWR）模型，从多维视角下研究了新型城市化对中国二氧化碳排放影响的时空变化特征，结果表明：①北京的新型城市化水平最高，东部沿海地区的新型城市化水平高于西部、西南和东北地区.②新型城市化对碳排放有显著促进作用.人口城市化、社会城市化和生态城市化对碳排放的影响存在明显的区域差异，在不同地区分别表现出促进作用和抑制作用，经济城市化和空间城市化对碳排放有显著促进作用.③人口城市化对碳排放影响的空间集聚性呈现出从西南、南部及东部地区往北部、东北部转移的特征.经济城市化对碳排放影响的空间集聚性呈现出从南部往东部沿海及东北地区逆时针转移的特征.社会城市化对碳排放影响的空间集聚性呈现出从南部、西南地区往西部及东北部顺时针转移的特征.空间城市化对碳排放影响的空间集聚性呈现出从北部、东北部地区往西部、西南地区逆时针转移的特征.生态城市化对碳排放影响的空间集聚性呈现出从东部往中西部转移的特征.

• Abstract：There is a close relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions. Existing studies mostly measured urbanization from a single dimension, thus ignoring the multidimensional nature of urbanization. We established a new urbanization evaluation system from the five dimensions of population, economy, society, space and ecology. Using panel data from China's 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities from 2004 to 2016, we studied the spatiotemporal characteristics of the impact of new urbanization on China's carbon dioxide emissions from a multi-dimensional perspective using the entropy method and geographically weighted regression model. The results show that, ① Beijing has the highest level of new urbanization, and the eastern coastal area has a higher level of new urbanization than the western, southwestern and northeastern regions. ② New urbanization has a significant role in promoting carbon emissions. There are obvious regional differences in the impact of population urbanization, social urbanization and eco-urbanization on carbon emissions and they have promoting and inhibiting effects in different regions. Economic urbanization and spatial urbanization have a significant role in promoting carbon emissions. ③ The spatial agglomeration of the impact of population urbanization on carbon emissions shows the characteristic of shifting from the southwest, south, and eastern regions to the north and northeast. The spatial agglomeration of the impact of economic urbanization on carbon emissions shows a counter-clockwise shift from the south to the east coast and the northeast. The spatial agglomeration of the impact of social urbanization on carbon emissions shows a clockwise shift from the south and southwest to the west and northeast. The spatial agglomeration of the impact of spatial urbanization on carbon emissions shows a counter-clockwise shift from the north and northeast regions to the west and southwest regions. The spatial agglomeration of the impact of eco-urbanization on carbon emissions shows a shift from the east to the midwest.

• Key words：new urbanization  carbon dioxide  geographically weighted regression model  spatiotemporal changes  regional differences

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