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研究报告

黄树元,唐晓,陈科艺,梁胜文,沈龙娇,王祖武,孔磊,张佩文,王自发.武汉冬季典型月份PM_2.5浓度变化的观测分析与模拟追因[J].环境科学学报,2021,41(3):842-852

Observation and simulation of PM_2.5 concentration variation in typical winter months in Wuhan

摘要：1月是武汉市发生重霾污染最为频繁的月份之一.本文利用地面观测数据对比分析了2014年1月与2018年1月武汉PM_2.5污染的变化与差异，进而利用嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统（NAQPMS）对其差异进行了模拟追因分析.分析结果表明，2018年1月武汉PM_2.5污染依旧严峻，出现了17个污染天，月均浓度达到了91.6 μg·m^-3，但污染程度与2014年1月相比有了大幅改善.其污染天比2014年1月减少了13 d，月均浓度下降了90.8 μg·m^-3，浓度峰值下降了154.6 μg·m^-3.通过设计基于气象场敏感性分析的数值模拟试验，发现在区域污染物排放强度保持不变的情形下，2014年1月和2018年1月气象场的变化对武汉月均PM_2.5浓度的影响较小，差异小于3 μg·m^-3.基于2018年1月的排放情景模拟2014年1月的武汉PM_2.5浓度会导致显著的低估现象.这表明气象条件变化不是武汉2018年1月相比2014年1月PM_2.5浓度显著下降、重污染天数显著减少的关键原因，而武汉本地、周边以及京津冀等重点城市群的排放量显著下降应是最为关键的主导因子.

Abstract：January is one of the most frequent months of heavy haze pollution in Wuhan. Changes and differences of PM_2.5 pollution in Wuhan between January 2014 and January 2018 were compared and analyzed by continuous ground observations in this study, and the Nested Grid Air Quality Forecast Model System (NAQPMS) was employed to simulate sources of PM_2.5 in Wuhan. The analysis results showed that in January 2018, Wuhan PM_2.5 pollution was still severe, with 17 polluted days, and the monthly average concentration reached 91.6 μg·m^-3, and the pollution level has been greatly improved compared with January 2014. The number of polluted days decreased by 13 days compared with January 2014, the monthly average concentration dropped by 90.8 μg·m^-3, and the peak concentration dropped by 154.6 μg·m^-3. By designing a numerical simulation experiment based on the sensitivity analysis of the meteorological field, it was found that the changes in the meteorological field has little impact on the average monthly PM_2.5 concentration in Wuhan in January 2014 and January 2018, and the difference is less than 3 μg·m^-3. Simulating the Wuhan PM_2.5 concentration in January 2014 based on the emission.