张雨婷,汪嘉杨,漆定梅,刘伟,田淙海.基于DCSM模型的成都市河流水环境承载力综合评价[J].环境科学学报,2021,41(9):3825-3833
基于DCSM模型的成都市河流水环境承载力综合评价
- Comprehensive evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity of Chengdu rivers based on DCSM framework
- 基金项目：国家社科基金重大项目（No.20&ZD091）；四川省科技厅项目（No.21RKX0358，2019JDJQ0006）；四川省社科规划项目（No.SC18B027）
- 张雨婷
- 成都信息工程大学资源环境学院, 成都 610225
- 汪嘉杨
- 成都信息工程大学资源环境学院, 成都 610225
- 漆定梅
- 成都市环境保护科学研究院, 成都 610072
- 刘伟
- 成都信息工程大学资源环境学院, 成都 610225
- 摘要：根据水污染流动"源头-转化-汇入"过程，综合衡量工业、农业、生活源污染排放对成都市主要河流的环境影响，提出"驱动力D （人口、社会经济发展）-承载源C （工业、农业、生活源污染排放）-承载状态S （污染程度）-管理M （治理污染投资）"4个子系统的DCSM模型，构建包含3层结构26个指标的成都市河流水环境承载力综合评价指标体系.采用投影寻踪模型得到各指标的影响程度，进一步建立区域水环境承载力各评价指标权重，根据最佳投影方向确定成都市主要河流2014—2018年的水环境承载力综合评价特征值，并得到相应评价等级.研究结果表明：影响程度最大的3项指标依次为：工业源COD排放强度、国考断面地表水TP平均浓度、环保投资占GDP的比重；通过对各个指标的权重分析，表明承载状态子系统和承载源子系统对综合评价结果所起作用最为显著，其次是管理子系统，驱动力子系统作用最小；通过评价等级分析，结果表明：2014—2018年成都市河流水环境承载力综合评价指数逐渐增加，评价等级从Ⅲ级（一般，2014—2016年）转变为Ⅱ级（较强，2017—2018年），说明5年来成都市河流水环境承载力逐步增加.研究表明了基于DCSM模型的成都市河流水环境承载力综合评价结果具有实用性和可行性，可以为城市河流水环境承载力综合评价提供新的研究思路，为水环境规划与管理的科学决策提供依据.
- Abstract：By simulating the "source-transformation-sink" process of water pollution flow, the comprehensive environmental impacts of pollution discharges from industry, agriculture and living sources to the main rivers of Chengdu were investigated. A conceptual framework including "Driver (Population, Socio-Economic Development Subsystem)-Carrying Source (Discharges from Industrial, Agricultural and Domestic Sources Subsystem)- Loading status (Pollution Level Subsystem)-Management (Investment in Pollution Control Subsystem)"(DCSM)was proposed. A total of 26 indicators with three-layer structures were chosen to establish a comprehensive evaluation system of river water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) of Chengdu. A projection pursuit model was used to calculate the influence degree of each indicator, the weight of each evaluation indicator of regional WECC was further calculated and the corresponding evaluation grade was obtained. The results showed that three indicators with the greatest impact on WECC are the discharge intensity of COD from industrial sources, the average concentration of TP from surface water in state-controlled monitoring station, and the proportion of environmental protection investment to GDP. By analyzing the weight of each indicator, one can conclude that the loading status subsystem and the carrying source subsystem play the most important role in the comprehensive evaluation system, the management subsystem is the second important system, the driving force system has the least effect. The evaluation grade analysis suggests that the evaluation index of water environmental carrying capacity in Chengdu increased gradually from 2014 to 2018. The evaluation level changed from level III (general, in 2014—2016) to level II (stronger, in 2017—2018). It indicates that water environment carrying capacity of Chengdu was increasing gradually in the past five years. Therefore, the WECC of Chengdu based on DCSM framework was proved to be practical and feasible, it can provide the basis for scientific decision-making on urban river water environment planning and management.
