王毓铮,黄志炯,肖笑,王肖丽,郑传增,沙青娥,郑君瑜.珠三角典型城市大气污染减排措施的PM2.5改善评估研究[J].环境科学学报,2021,41(7):2530-2539
珠三角典型城市大气污染减排措施的PM2.5改善评估研究
- Evaluation of PM2.5 improvements from local control measures in typical cities of the Pearl River Delta
- 基金项目：国家重点研发计划（No.2018YFC0213905）；国家自然科学基金（No.91744310）
- 王毓铮
- 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广州 510006
- 黄志炯
- 暨南大学环境与气候研究院, 广州 511486
- 肖笑
- 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广州 510006
- 王肖丽
- 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广州 510006
- 郑传增
- 暨南大学环境与气候研究院, 广州 511486
- 沙青娥
- 暨南大学环境与气候研究院, 广州 511486
- 郑君瑜
- 暨南大学环境与气候研究院, 广州 511486
- 摘要：评估大气污染减排措施的成效能为空气质量改善政策制定和优化提供科学指导，但大多减排措施评估研究采用敏感性分析方法进行量化，计算效率低且无法考虑不同减排措施之间的相互影响.另外，现有研究大多关注区域减排措施评估，很少针对城市尺度进行评估.基于此，本研究结合基于模式的PSAT源解析技术提出了一种相对较为高效的城市大气污染减排措施的PM2.5改善评估方法，并以珠三角典型城市为例，定量评估了肇庆市2014—2016年期间实施的16项减排措施对PM2.5污染的影响.结果发现，肇庆市近年来的本地减排措施有效降低了SO2、PM2.5、PM10、NOx、NH3和VOCs排放，降幅分别达到25%、14%、13%、11%、9%和4%.根据模型评估，在2016年气象条件下，2014—2016年期间减排措施使肇庆市本地生成PM2.5浓度下降了16.0%，其中，对浓度下降贡献最为明显的污染源为工业源和生物质燃烧源，关键措施是以煤炭品质提升为代表的燃煤管控和以焚烧区划定为代表的生物质露天焚烧管控，使肇庆本地PM2.5浓度分别下降了7.2%和2.4%.农牧源、扬尘源和道路移动源等其他源的减排措施也对PM2.5浓度改善有一定的贡献，但这些源贡献无法抑制活动水平增长带来的排放和贡献浓度的增长，表明这些源仍存在较大的减排潜力，是下一阶段肇庆市PM2.5防治的重点对象.本研究的评估方法证实了减排措施的有效性，同时也为未来城市空气质量改善提供了科学依据和技术支撑.
- Abstract：Evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control measures shed light on air quality management. However, most studies mainly focused on the use of sensitivity analysis methods to quantify the effectiveness of control measures, which are inefficient and cannot consider the interaction between various control measures. In addition, there are many studies on the evaluation of regional emission reduction measures, and seldom conduct evaluations at the city scale. In this study, combined with particulate source apportionment technology (PSAT), a relatively efficient method to evaluating the local control measures in cities was proposed. Zhaoqing in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) was selected as a case city to quantitatively evaluate the impact of 16 detailed control measures implemented during 2014—2016 on PM2.5 pollution. Results show that local control measures beneficially reduced SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, NH3 and VOCs emissions by 25%, 14%, 13%, 11%, 9% and 4% respectively. According to the model evaluation, the control measures from 2014 to 2016 reduced the local PM2.5 concentration by 16.0% under the meteorological conditions in 2016. Industrial sources and biomass burning sources play major roles on the PM2.5 decrease, and upgrading coal quality and setting up burn-prohibited areas are the two most effective local measures (contributing reductions of 7.2% and 2.4%, respectively). Agricultural source, dust source and on-road mobile source cannot alleviate the PM2.5 concentration caused by the increase in activity levels due to the lack of control efforts. These sources are acknowledged as the key point of the next steps for air pollution control. Our study confirms the effectiveness of air pollution control measures, and also provides the scientific basis and technical support for the improvement of urban air quality in the future.
