• 关键词：景电灌区  土地资源  云模型  隶属度  承载状态

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（No.51579102）；河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划（No.19IRTSTHN030）；中原科技创新领军人才支持计划（No.204200510048）；浙江省重点研发计划项目（No.2021C03019）；甘肃省水利科研与计划项目（No.2021-20）

• 刘子金
• 1. 华北水利水电大学, 水利学院, 郑州 450046;2. 河南省水工结构安全工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046;3. 浙江省农村水利水电资源配置与调控关键技术重点实验室, 杭州 310018

• 徐钰德
• 1. 华北水利水电大学, 水利学院, 郑州 450046

• 朱兴林
• 1. 华北水利水电大学, 水利学院, 郑州 450046;2. 河南省水工结构安全工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046

• 黄嵩
• 1. 华北水利水电大学, 水利学院, 郑州 450046;2. 河南省水工结构安全工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046;3. 浙江省农村水利水电资源配置与调控关键技术重点实验室, 杭州 310018

• 李智睿
• 1. 华北水利水电大学, 水利学院, 郑州 450046;2. 河南省水工结构安全工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046;3. 浙江省农村水利水电资源配置与调控关键技术重点实验室, 杭州 310018

• 李欣达
• 1. 华北水利水电大学, 水利学院, 郑州 450046;2. 河南省水工结构安全工程技术研究中心, 郑州 450046

• 摘要：为解决干旱扬水灌区土地资源承载状态受多因素耦合影响而难以定量化描述的难题.本文以景电一期灌区为例,基于多级模糊评价理论构建评价指标体系,引入解决复杂系统模糊性及不确定性具有特有优势的云模型,结合黄金分割率法与云发生器原理集成了评语集标准云模型与状态层隶属度云模型,以组合赋权算法求解了指标权重,最终以云数字特征的形式对灌区1994年、2002年、2010年及2018年的土地资源承载状态进行了定量表述.结果表明:灌区各时期土地资源承载状态综合评价云分别为C₁(0.3175,0.0728,0.0131)、C₂(0.5846,0.0418,0.0117)、C₃(0.5315,0.0379,0.0098)、C₄(0.7045,0.0614,0.0144).结合云相似度分布特征可知,各时期土地资源承载状态分别为"轻微承载"、"临界承载"、"临界承载"及"承载安全".可知灌区土地资源承载状态自1994年—2018年主要经历了3个演变阶段,即1994—2002年为"快速改善期"、2002—2010年为"环境损伤期"、2010—2018年为"健康恢复期".该方法可为指导研究区及相似研究区寻求生产需求与生态保护之间的平衡机制提供有益参考.

• Abstract：Taking Jingtaichuan Phase I irrigation area as the study area, this study aims to find a solution to quantitative description of the land resource carrying capacity of pumping irrigation areas in arid regions, which is hard to achieve due to the influence of multiple factors. In this study, an evaluation index system was built based on the multi-level fuzzy evaluation theory, and a cloud model with special advantages in addressing the fuzziness and uncertainty of complex systems was introduced. Comment set standard and carrying capacity affiliation cloud models were developed based on the golden section method and the cloud generator principle. Through the combination weighting approach, the index weight was obtained. The land resource carrying capacity of the study area in 1994, 2002, 2010 and 2018 were represented in the quantitative form of cloud numerical features. The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation clouds of the land resource carrying capacity of the irrigation area in each period were C₁(0.3175,0.0728,0.0131), C₂(0.5846,0.0418,0.0117), C₃(0.5315,0.0379,0.0098) and C₄(0.7045,0.0614,0.0144), respectively. Based on the distribution characteristics of cloud similarity, it can be seen that the carrying capacity of land resources in each period was "slight", "critical", "critical" and "safe". It indicated that the carrying capacity of land resources in the irrigation area went through three main stages from 1994 to 2018, namely the "rapid improvement period" from 1994 to 2002, the "environmental damage period" from 2002 to 2010, and the "recovery period" from 2010 to 2018. This method can provide a useful reference for the study area and other areas with similar conditions in seeking a balance between production needs and ecological conservation.

• Key words：Jingdian irrigation district  land resources  cloud model  affiliation  carrying state

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