• 关键词：铅排放  污染源  时空变化  不确定性分析

• 基金项目：浙江省公益研究计划项目（No.LGJ21D030001）；浙江省重点研发计划项目（No.2021C04020，2015C02011）

• 李娜
• 1. 浙江省农业科学院农产品质量安全与营养研究所, 杭州 310021;2. 湖北大学资源环境学院, 武汉 430000

• 杨兰芳
• 湖北大学资源环境学院, 武汉 430000

• 朱有为
• 浙江省耕地质量与肥料管理总站, 杭州 310020

• 邓美华
• 浙江省农业科学院农产品质量安全与营养研究所, 杭州 310021

• 摘要：随着工农业的高速发展，大量的人为铅排放到环境，引起了一系列的生态健康问题.本文以工农业集产区浙江省为案例，系统构建了18个铅排放源排放清单，其中新增添了纺织业、制革业、造纸业、秸秆利用、牲畜废物利用、化肥消费、农药消费等铅排放行业，估算了浙江省1990—2018年各污染源铅排放量，分析了其时空变异趋势.结果表明，浙江省前期（1990—2000）铅排放通量增长有限，其排放量仅约2500 t·a^-1，有色金属开采贡献了约55%；其后增长速度较快，到2014年以后达到较高的稳定值，约35000 t·a^-1，是1990年的14倍，铅酸蓄电池生产是其主要排放源，占比从14%增长到了80%.从排放的去向来看，98%左右的铅通过固废的形式进入环境，而进入大气和废水的只有2%和0.2%左右，其主要排放源分别为铅酸蓄电池生产、原煤燃烧、纺织业.而浙江省各个地区铅排放表现出较大的空间差异，各地区因工农业发展模式不一样，人为排放源也不一样.总体来看北部高于南部，尤其湖州、绍兴、舟山等地铅排放量较高.可见，浙江省人为铅排放形势仍然很严峻，控制好铅酸蓄电池生产固废资源化无害化处理是源头控制的重中之重，调整原煤燃烧将有利于降低大气铅排放，纺织业废水净化处理对缓解水体铅污染有重要意义.本研究不仅为浙江省铅污染治理提供了重要科学依据，同时也为铅污染源端防控提供了数据基础.

• Abstract：As the rapid development of industry and agriculture, a great amount of anthropogenic lead (Pb) emitted into environment, and it caused a set of ecological and public health problems. Taking Zhejiang Province as a case study, this study firstly estimated the Pb emissions from the textile industry, leather industry, paper industry, straw utilization, livestock waste utilization, fertilizer consumption and pesticide consumption, and altogether 18 Pb emission sources were inventoried. Then the Pb emission character in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 2018 was analyzed. The results showed highly spatiotemporal variabilities. During 1990-2000, the Pb emission in Zhejiang Province increased slightly and the emission rate was only about 2500 t·a^-1. Non-ferrous metal mining contributed about 55% in this period. After 2000, Pb emission increased sharply and reached at a high stable value of 35000 t·a^-1 after 2014, which was 14 times of 1990. Lead-acid battery production was the main emission source, and the proportion increased from 14% to 80%. Regarding the sinks, about 98% of total Pb fluxed into solid waste, while only 2% and 0.2% of total Pb respectively emitted into the atmosphere and waste water. The major source was lead-acid battery production for solid waste, raw coal combustion for atmosphere and textile industry for water, respectively. In whole region, the north area showed much higher Pb emission than that of the south, especially in Huzhou, Shaoxing and Zhoushan. Also, the anthropogenic emission sources were different in different regions. In a word, the situation of Pb emission in Zhejiang Province is still very serious. To recycling using the solid waste Pb of lead-acid battery production would be the most important mitigate solution on Pb pollution in Zhejiang. Changing raw coal combustion into clean energy will help to reduce the atmospheric Pb emission. The purification treatment of textile wastewater can significant to alleviate the Pb pollution in water. Therefore, this study not only provided the insight knowledge for the Pb pollution managements in Zhejiang Province, but also provides a comprehensive data basis for future source inventory of Pb pollution.

• Key words：lead emissions  pollution sources  spatiotemporal variations  uncertainty analysis

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