• 关键词：氨氮排放  城市化  驱动作用  空间交互特征  长三角地区

• 基金项目：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）（No.XDA23020101）；国家自然科学基金项目（No.41971164）

• 伍健雄
• 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049

• 周侃
• 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049

• 刘汉初
• 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190

• 摘要：解析城市化过程对水污染物排放的驱动机制及其空间演化特征，对科学管控水污染物超标排放和源头上减少水污染物入水具有重要意义，是生态文明建设时期推进城市绿色发展、打造高质量人居环境的重要施策依据.以长江三角洲为例，建立县域氨氮排放和人口社会经济数据库，在揭示2011—2015年长三角地区氨氮排放的时空演变特征基础上，构建基于STIRPAT框架的驱动力分析模型，运用空间计量方法定量估计人口城市化和土地城市化对氨氮排放的驱动作用，并通过设置不同阈值的反距离空间权重矩阵测度其空间交互效应.结果表明：①2011—2015年长三角地区氨氮排放整体规模下降显著，氨氮高值排放区县向沿海和地市中心快速收缩，热点区分布呈沿海持续集聚、内陆不断减少，在动态变化中，在长三角地区形成了圈层式分布格局；②空间溢出效应显著，即本地的氨氮排放明显受到周边地区的影响.长三角城市化过程总体上缓解了区域的氨氮排放压力，人口规模和经济水平会驱动区域氨氮排放增加，外商直接投资和固定资产投资规模则抑制了氨氮排放；③土地城市化和人口城市化会加剧本地氨氮排放，但会吸引相邻区县人口、资源要素集聚，并通过绿色生产生活方式的辐射促进邻地氨氮排放下降.空间交互特征表明，以城市群和都市圈为主体，在100 km范围内，高度城市化地区的集聚效应和示范作用驱动了氨氮排放下降.

• Abstract：The analysis of the driving mechanism and spatial evolution characteristics of the urbanization process for the emissions of water pollutants plays a significant role in applying scientifically reasonable restriction on the excessive discharge of water pollutants and in addressing the root cause for water entering into the water. In addition, it provides an important policy basis for promoting the eco-friendly development of cities and building high-quality settlements for humans in the course of constructing ecological civilization. By exemplifying the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), an ammonia nitrogen emission and population socio-economic database was established in this paper at the county level, so as to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ammonia nitrogen emissions across the YRD during the period from 2011 to 2015. Furthermore, the driving force analysis model was constructed on the basis of the STIRPAT framework, the spatial measurement methods were applied to make quantitative forecasting of the potential impact of population and land urbanization on ammonia nitrogen emissions, and the effects of its spatial interaction were measured by setting different thresholds for inverse distance spatial weight matrices. Then, the results were obtained to reveal the following points. Firstly, the level of ammonia nitrogen emissions dropped sharply from 2011 to 2015 across the YRD area. The districts and counties with high levels of ammonia nitrogen emission retreated rapidly to the coastal areas. The spatial distribution of hot spots was shown to accumulate on a continued basis in the coastal areas but diminish continuously in the inland areas. The dynamic changes had formed an evident circular structure as a whole. Secondly, the spatial spillover effect reached a significant level. That is to say, the local emissions of ammonia nitrogen were clearly affected by the surrounding areas. The urbanization had generally released the pressure from the ammonia nitrogen emissions across the YRD. The population size and economic development level displayed a positive effect on the ammonia nitrogen emissions, while the fixed asset investment and foreign direct investment displayed a negative effect on regional ammonia nitrogen emissions. Thirdly, the land and population urbanization would increase the local ammonia nitrogen emissions, while suppressing surrounding emissions through the attraction of population resources elements and the radiation of green production and lifestyle. The characteristics of spatial interaction showed that with urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas as the main body, within 100 kilometers, the agglomeration and demonstration effects of highly urbanized areas had driven the decline of ammonia emissions in the YRD.

• Key words：ammonia nitrogen emission  urbanization  driving effect  spatial interaction characteristics  Yangtze River Delta (YRD)

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