研究报告
郑宏媚.基于生态网络分析的京津冀城市群隐含碳代谢强度研究[J].环境科学学报,2022,42(3):487-496
基于生态网络分析的京津冀城市群隐含碳代谢强度研究
- Embodied carbon intensity analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban metabolic system based on ecological network analysis method
- 摘要：针对当前城市群发展中所映射出的高碳排放现状，选取京津冀城市群作为研究对象，构建区域及产业部门两个层面的网络模型.结果发现，在区域层面，北京、天津、河北隐含碳排放量均呈稳步增加趋势，其中，北京受减排政策影响隐含碳排放量增长幅度较小且排放强度最小，而河北作为城市群主要工业生产区，排放量及排放强度依然居高不下.在产业部门层面，部门隐含碳排放量中金属冶炼及压延加工业和电力、热力生产及供应业处在前列，而前者主要受到产业趋同效应影响，后者揭示北京对外调电依赖程度愈发明显而河北作为燃煤发电地区碳排放量增长迅速.对比两层面结果，发现二者变化趋势保持一致，且城市群内产业结构趋同性依然较为明显，服务行业因其所具有的较低排放强度及较高竞争力，在地区经济发展中地位可进一步提升.本研究从“代谢”视角出发，探究经济条件约束下城市群区域及产业部门碳减排责任， 整合生态网络分析方法探究隐含碳排放强度表征下的系统结构和功能特征，可为城市群实现“减碳”目标提供科学依据.
- Abstract：Owing to the high carbon emission of urban agglomeration， Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is chosen as a case study to develop two scale models， one regional and the other sectoral. Results show that the embodied carbon emission of Beijing， Tianjin， and Hebei increased from 2007 to 2017， among which carbon emission in Beijing increased slowly and its emission intensity was the smallest， as carbon emission reduction policies were implemented. However， emissions in Hebei grew at the highest rate and its intensity was the highest because of its heavily polluting industrial infrastructure. At the sectoral scale， the embodied carbon emission of the sectors “Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals” and “Production and Supply of Gas” both ranked first， the former sector because of the industrial convergence effect， and the latter reflecting the dependence of Beijing on an external power supply and the increasing carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants in Hebei. Comparing the results of these two scales reveals that the emission trend from 2007 to 2017 is almost the same， and the industrial convergence effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration still exists； the tertiary sectors are much more comparative as they have lower carbon emission intensity， which could decrease in the near future. This research introduces the theory of “metabolism” to detect the carbon emission reduction responsibility of regions or sectors within an urban agglomeration system. The ecological network analysis method is used to quantify the relationships among regions or sectors based on the indicator of embodied carbon intensity. It aims to provide a scientific basis for future “carbon emission reduction.”
- Key words：industrial ecology urban metabolism carbon metabolism carbon intensity Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
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