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研究报告

Forecasting of transport carbon emission peak in Hubei Province under multiple scenarios

摘要：为加快湖北省交通运输业实现碳达峰，利用湖北省2005—2019年人口规模、城镇化率、交通运输强度、能源强度等数据，构建扩展STIRPAT模型，并结合设置的基准、污染减排、节能降碳、绿色低碳4类情景（18种情景方案），对湖北省2020—2035年交通运输碳排放峰值进行预测.结果表明：①2005—2019年湖北省交通运输碳排放量总体呈现出波动上升的趋势；②在其它影响因素不变的情况下，技术性减排对交通运输碳排放的抑制作用大于结构性减排，且随着时间推移，其作用效果越明显；③绿色低碳情景下，保持人口和城镇化率中增长、经济水平高增长的情景方案最可能符合湖北省交通运输碳排放达峰路径，研究预测其碳排放于2030年达到峰值6330.2万t.最后，结合研究结论提出了具体可行的政策性建议.

Abstract：In order to accelerate the peak of the transportation industry in Hubei Province， this study constructs an extended STIRPAT model using data as population size， urbanization rate， transportation intensity and energy intensity in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2019. Then combines with 4 scenarios as the benchmark scenario， pollution reduction scenario， energy conservation and carbon reduction scenario and green low-carbon scenario （18 kinds of scenario plans）， the peak carbon emissions of transportation in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2035 are predicted. The results show that：①the carbon emissions of transportation in Hubei Province showed a trend of fluctuating and rising overall from 2005 to 2019.②With other influencing factors unchanged， the suppression effect of technical emission reduction on transportation carbon emissions is greater than structural emission reduction， and its effect becomes more obvious as time goes by.③Under the green low-carbon scenario， the scenario plan of maintaining a moderate growth in population and urbanization rate， and high growth of economic is most likely to be in line with the path of carbon emissions peak from transportation in Hubei Province which will reach a peak of 63.302 million tons in 2030. Finally， combining the research conclusions to put forward specific and feasible policy recommendations.

Key words：traffic engineering carbon emissions from transportation STIRPAT model scenario setting low carbon development Hubei Province