• 关键词：骆马湖  浅水湖泊  水质评价  南水北调  富营养化  相关性分析

• 基金项目：中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（No.2020316）；国家自然科学基金（No.32071572）

• 胡恺源
• 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，湖泊与环境国家重点实验室，南京 210008;中国科学院大学，北京 100049

• 王金东
• 江苏省骆运水利工程管理处，宿迁 223800

• 兰林
• 江苏省水利工程规划办公室，南京 210029

• 彭凯
• 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，湖泊与环境国家重点实验室，南京 210008

• 蔡永久
• 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，湖泊与环境国家重点实验室，南京 210008;中国科学院大学，北京 100049

• 龚志军
• 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，湖泊与环境国家重点实验室，南京 210008;中国科学院大学，北京 100049

• 摘要：骆马湖是南水北调东线工程的重要调蓄湖泊，其水质状况直接影响着南水北调输水安全.为分析骆马湖近年来水质变化，于2016年1月—2019年12月对骆马湖10个样点开展逐月水质生态监测并进行统计分析，探究骆马湖水质变化规律及驱动因素.结果表明：骆马湖水体总氮浓度较高，多年平均浓度为2.09 mg·L^-1，为劣Ⅴ类水；磷为浮游藻类生长主要限制因子之一，总磷多年平均浓度达到0.0526 mg·L^-1，为Ⅳ类水；高锰酸盐指数（COD_Mn）和叶绿素a（Chl-a）浓度均值分别为4.56 mg·L^-1和18.48 μg·L^-1；综合营养状态指数（TLI）均值为52.76，属于轻度富营养.监测显示，在8月骆马湖氮磷营养盐浓度、高锰酸盐指数、叶绿素a浓度等水质指标均会出现异常增高的现象，2016—2019年的8月TN平均 浓度达到3.99 mg·L^-1，TP平均浓度达到 0.109 mg·L^-1，约为年平均值的2倍.相关性分析表明，水质指标的异常变化与入湖河流流量及上游 降雨量呈显著正相关.对比数据发现，2016—2019年骆马湖水体营养盐含量上升趋势明显，TLI指数及浮游植物量均表明富营养化及污染程度有所提高，存在富营养化的生态风险.其水质异常变化可能导致富营养化蓝藻水华风险加剧，威胁受水地区用水安全.

• Abstract：Lake Luoma is an important lake for the East Route Project（ERP） of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project（NSBD） and the water quality directly affects the water safety of the South-to-North water diversion. In order to analyze the water quality changes of Lake Luoma in recent years， 10 sites of Lake Luoma were monitored monthly from January 2016 to December 2019， and the water quality change pattern and driving factors were explored. The results show that TN concentration in Luoma Lake was high， with annual average concentration of 2.09 mg·L^-1 （Grade Ⅴ）； phosphorus was one of the main limiting factors for phytoplankton growth， and the average annual concentration reached 0.0526 mg·L^-1 （Grade IV）； the mean value of permanganate index concentration was 4.56 mg·L^-1 and the mean value of Chl-a was 18.48 μg·L^-1. The comprehensive trophic level index（TLI） was 52.76， which indicates the light eutrophication level. The results showed that the water quality indexes such as nutrient concentrations， permanganate index and Chl-a concentration increase abnormally in August.During 2016 to 2019， TN concentration in August each year was 3.99 mg·L^-1， and TP concentration was 0.109 mg·L^-1， nearly reaching twice the annual average. The correlation analysis showed that the abnormal change of water quality index has a significant positive correlation with the flow of rivers and rainfall in the watershed. Comparing the data of 2016 to 2019， it is found that the nutrient concentrations in Lake Luoma was rising obviously. TLI index and biological index both indicate that the eutrophication and pollution degree have been deteriorated ， with the ecological risk of eutrophication rising. The abnormal change of water quality may lead to the risk of eutrophication cyanobacteria bloom， which threatens the water safety of the operation of the ERP.

• Key words：Luoma Lake  shallow lake  water quality assessment  South to North Water Diversion  eutrophication  correlation analysis

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