• 关键词：城市水资源利用效率  标杆  需水量估算  黄河流域

• 基金项目：中国人民大学重大基础研究计划项目（No.12XNL005）

• 何伟
• 中国人民大学环境政策与环境规划研究所，北京 100872;北京数汇通信息技术有限公司，北京 100872

• 王语苓
• 中国人民大学环境学院，北京 100872

• 傅毅明
• 中国信息安全研究院有限公司，北京 102209

• 陈德良
• 北京大学大数据分析与应用国家工程实验室，北京 100871

• 摘要：以黄河流域54个地级及以上城市市辖区为研究对象，基于样本数据正态分布统计规律和影响水资源利用效率客观因素的城市分类， 建立了全国总体和不同类型城市万元GDP水耗、人均综合水耗、人均生活水耗等指标的水资源利用效率标杆体系，据此对黄河流域城市市辖区水资源利用效率进行对标评估.结果发现，黄河流域城市万元GDP水耗整体水平一直处于全国中等水平，人均综合水耗、人均生活水耗在 全国地级及以上城市和相同类型城市中整体处于中等偏上水平，52%和57%的城市人均综合水耗和人均生活水耗呈现上升趋势.同时，基于灰色系统预测模型和队列要素法估算了黄河流域“十四五”经济社会发展规划期间的城市市辖区水资源需求总量，测算得出2020年、2025年黄河流域市辖区需水量主要集中于三门峡河段以东下游的地级及以上城市，整体水资源需求总量将会明显下降，2020年和2025年的需水 总量较2017年分别下降14.42%和9.48%.本研究将为黄河流域城市水资源利用效率目标设定和供水总量预测提供相应的技术参考.

• Abstract：Based on the statistical law of normal distribution of sample data and the classification of cities with objective factors affecting water resources utilization efficiency， this paper has established the water resources utilization efficiency benchmark system of water consumption per 10000 yuan GDP， comprehensive water consumption of one person and domestic water consumption of one person among 54 cities above prefecture level in the Yellow River Basin， in view of the above， the evaluation of water resources utilization efficiency of urban districts in the Yellow River Basin is carried out. It was found that the overall level of water consumption per 10000 yuan GDP of cities in the Yellow River Basin has always been at the national medium level， and comprehensive water consumption of one person and domestic water consumption of one person which showed an upward trend in 52% and 57% of the cities located in the Yellow River Basin， were at the upper middle level in cities above the prefecture level and in cities of the same type in China as a whole. Based on the grey system prediction model and the queue element method， the total water resource demand of urban districts in the Yellow River Basin during the "fourteenth five year plan" economic and social development planning period was estimated. It was found that in 2020 and 2025， the water demand of urban districts in the Yellow River Basin would mainly concentrated in the cities above the prefecture level in the downstream east of Sanmenxia Reach， and the total demand for water resources of urban districts in the Yellow River Basin in 2020 year and 2025 year， would decrease significantly by 14.42% and 9.48% respectively compared with 2017 year.This study will provide corresponding technical reference for the target setting of urban water resources utilization efficiency and the prediction of total water supply in the Yellow River Basin.

• Key words：urban water resources utilization efficiency  benchmark  estimation of water-demand  Yellow River basin

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