• 关键词：PM_2.5  O₃  WRF-Chem模式  NO_x和VOCs协同减排  长三角地区  大气污染防治

• 基金项目：上海市自然科学基金（No.17ZR1408600）；华东师范大学公共创新服务平台（001）、资源环境与生态学国际合作平台项目

• 王君悦
• 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室，上海 200241

• 刘朝顺
• 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室，上海 200241

• 摘要：以PM_2.5和O₃浓度超标为表征的区域性大气复合污染已成为当前我国大气污染的主要问题，严重影响到经济的发展和社会的和谐，探究PM_2.5与O₃的协同控制近年来成为大气污染防控的热点.本文基于WRF-Chem模式，结合气象、大气污染物观测数据及MEIC排放清单等数据，依据不同比例的NO_x和VOCs减排量，设计了36组减排情景，模拟了长三角地区PM_2.5和O₃复合污染时段的空气质量状况.同时，利用综合经验动力学（CEKMA）方法，综合考虑NO_x和VOCs减排的边际效益成本和环境健康效益，评估了长三角地区NO_x及VOCs减排对PM_2.5和O₃大气污染控制的影响.最后，定性并定量地研究两者的协同关系及协同减排效果，给出了该区域在复合污染情景下的先侧重VOCs、后侧重NO_x减排的协同优化路径，采取先减少NO_x排放约70%（或60%）且减少VOCs排放约10%（或20%），再削减剩余VOCs及NO_x排放量的方案，减排的环境空气质量改善效率可以分别达到最优路径的90%（或80%）以上，而等比例同时减排NO_x和VOCs对区域空气质量的改善反而是效果不佳的 减排方案之一.研究方法和结论对区域大气环境的综合治理具有重要的应用价值，对我国其他地区的大气污染防治及相关研究也具有借鉴意义.

• Abstract：Regional compound air pollution， characterized by high levels of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations， has become the main problem of air pollution in China， posing a severe threat to economic development and social peace. The synergistic management of PM_2.5 and O₃ has been a hot topic in air pollution prevention and control in recent years. In this paper， combining meteorological and air pollution monitoring data with MEIC emission inventory data， 36 sets of emission reduction scenarios based on different proportions of NO_x and VOCs emission reductions were designed using the WRF-Chem model to simulate the air quality conditions of PM_2.5 and O₃ compound pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region. The impact of NO_x and VOCs emission reduction on PM_2.5 and O₃ air pollution control in the Yangtze River Delta region was evaluated using the Combined Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach method （CEKMA） by considering the marginal benefit-cost and environmental health benefits of NO_x and VOCs emission reduction. The synergistic interaction and emission reduction impacts were also investigated qualitatively and quantitatively given a strategy that prioritizes the reduction of NO_x before moving on to VOCs emissions which is the region's optimal NO_x and VOCs emission reduction strategy under the composite pollution scenario. It should be noted that by reducing NO_x emissions by about 70% （or 60%） and VOCs emissions by about 10% （or 20%） before reducing the remaining VOCs and NO_x emissions， the ambient air quality improvement efficiency of the emission reduction can reach more than 90% （or 80%） of the optimal pathway， whereas reducing NO_x and VOCs in equal proportions at the same time is ineffective for regional air quality improvement. The findings and methods of the study are also useful for air pollution prevention and control， as well as comparable studies in other areas of China.

• Key words：PM_2.5  O₃  WRF-Chem  NO_x and VOCs emission reduction  Yangtze River Delta region  air pollution prevention

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