• 关键词：气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）  PM_2.5  暴露风险  时空演变格局  长三角一体化示范区

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.41730642，41571047）；上海市生态环境局科研项目（No.沪环科［2021］第36号）

• 徐丹
• 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院，上海 200234

• 林文鹏
• 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院，上海 200234;上海长三角城市湿地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站，上海 200234

• 施润和
• 华东师范大学地理科学学院，上海 200241

• 高峻
• 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院，上海 200234;上海长三角城市湿地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站，上海 200234

• 李鲁冰
• 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院，上海 200234

• 摘要：长三角一体化示范区是国家重大战略区域，掌握其PM_2.5污染与暴露风险演变格局，对长三角区域碳中和与低碳循环绿色发展具有重要意义.本文利用MODIS数据估算示范区2001—2020年气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）和PM_2.5浓度，运用人口加权模型计算1 km×1 km网格PM_2.5暴露风险，并结合Moran's I指数、Theil-Sen和Mann-Kendall方法分析其空间集聚性特征、时序演变规律与显著性趋势.结果显示：2001—2020年， 示范区PM_2.5呈波动增长趋势，春季和冬季浓度明显高于夏季和秋季；人口逐年增加，年均人口密度达到1386人·km^-2；年均PM_2.5暴露风险为1.23，整体处于安全状态，空间上有4个危险暴露区（松陵镇、盛泽镇、魏塘街道、盈浦街道与香花桥街道交界处）.其PM_2.5暴露风险的空间集聚性显著，以4个危险暴露区为中心，呈“先边界、后内部”的时空增长模式；示范区暴露风险逐年增加的区域超过36%（速率0.031 a^-1），在2011—2020年，暴露风险显著减少的面积反超显著增加的面积.示范区总体空气质量良好，但PM_2.5暴露风险的边界扩散现象明显，小尺度区域的PM_2.5污染防治应更加注重跨区域共同治理，可以聚焦在镇级或更小行政单位的边缘地带，采取差异化的大气污染联防联控措施.

• Abstract：The Yangtze River Delta Ecological Greening Development Demonstration Area is a major national strategy area， and exploring spatial-temporal characteristics of PM_2.5 pollution and exposure risk is of great significance for the carbon neutrality and low-carbon green development. In this study， Aerosol Optical Depth （AOD） and PM_2.5 data were retrieved and estimated from MODIS remote sensing images during 2001—2020. PM_2.5 exposure risk was calculated by population-weighted exposure model. Moran's I index， Theil-Sen and Mann-Kendall methods were combined to analyze the spatial agglomeration characteristics， spatial-temporal evolution pattern and significant change trend. Results showed that PM_2.5 in the demonstration area showed a trend of fluctuating growth from 2001 to 2020， and the concentration in spring and winter was significantly higher than that in summer and autumn. The population increased year by year， with an average annual population density of 1386 per square kilometer. The average annual PM_2.5 exposure risk is 1.23 （in safe condition）， with four high-risk areas （Songling Town， Shengze Town， Weitang Street， the junction of Yingpu and Xianghuaqiao Street）. Moreover， the spatial agglomeration of PM_2.5 exposure risk in the demonstration area was significant， with four high-risk areas as the center， showing a spatial-temporal increase pattern of "boundary first， then interior". The exposure risk increased year by year （rate at 0.031a^-1） over 36% in areas， and the decrease areas exceeded the increase areas during 2011—2020. The overall air quality of the demonstration area is good， but the boundary diffusion phenomenon of PM_2.5 exposure risk is still significant. Based on the evolution characteristic of PM_2.5 pollution and exposure risk in small scale， PM_2.5 prevention and control should focus on township or smaller level. Pay more attention to trans-regional co-governance is urgent and important.

• Key words：aerosol optical depth（AOD）  PM_2.5  exposure risk  spatial-temporal evolution patterns  the Yangtze River Delta Ecological Greening Development Demonstration Area

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