• 关键词：挥发性有机物（VOCs）  工业源  碳达峰碳中和  排放特征  减排潜力

• 基金项目：生态环境部细颗粒物和臭氧协同防控示范研究项目（No.DQGG202133）；国家自然科学基金（No.51878292）；广州市科技计划项目（No.202002020020）

• 钟美芳
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广州 510006

• 李智博
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广州 510006

• 黄皓旻
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广州 510006;挥发性有机物污染治理技术与装备国家工程实验室，广州 510006;广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室，广州 510006;广东省环境风险防控与应急处置工程技术研究中心，广州 510006

• 范丽雅
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广州 510006;挥发性有机物污染治理技术与装备国家工程实验室，广州 510006;广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室，广州 510006;广东省环境风险防控与应急处置工程技术研究中心，广州 510006

• 叶代启
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广州 510006;挥发性有机物污染治理技术与装备国家工程实验室，广州 510006;广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室，广州 510006;广东省环境风险防控与应急处置工程技术研究中心，广州 510006

• 摘要：运用排放因子法估算2020年工业源VOCs排放量，综合相关文献调研结果、环境空气质量和“双碳”相关政策要求、技术发展规律以及专家评估，运用情景分析法确定排放源减排措施、排放因子减排率、能效提升率并量化2020—2060年强化情景和双碳情景的排放量和减排潜力，同时分析CO₂和VOCs减排的协同效应.结果表明，2020年工业源VOCs排放量约为1357.5万t.含VOCs的产品使用环节排放量最大，占总量的55.7%.工业防护涂料涂装、印刷与包装印刷及石油和天然气加工为前3大排放量源，合计贡献率约为34.7%.江苏、山东、广东、浙江是全国前4大排放省份，共占全国总排放量的40.7%.4种控制情景下，2060年高速GDP-强化情景排放量最大，约为532万t；低速GDP-双碳情景最小，约469万t，相比于高速GDP-强化情景排放量减少63万t，表明双碳政策有利于VOCs减排；排放量减排率方面，2020—2040年高速GDP-双碳情景减排率小于低速GDP-强化情景，2040—2060年反之，表明双碳政策更有利于VOCs的中长期减排.环节方面，含VOCs产品的使用排放占比变化最大，2060年双碳情景比强化情景下降5%.削减量方面，工业涂装行业削减量最大，主要削减途径为低VOCs含量涂料源头替代；2060年双碳情景下能源行业削减量近100万t，削减途径为能源清洁水平和能效水平的提高，应继续推进VOCs全过程治理，同时提高能源清洁水平和能效水平.4种控制情景下，CO₂和VOCs减排均具有协同效应，双碳情景下减排量弹性系数≈1，协同效应较佳.

• Abstract：Use the emission factor method to estimate the VOCs emissions from industrial sources in 2020， and integrating relevant literature research results， environmental air quality and carbon peak and carbon neutrality related policy requirements， technology development laws and expert assessment， the scenario analysis method is used to determine the emission source emission reduction measures， emission factor emission reduction rate and energy efficiency improvement rate， and quantify the emissions and emission reduction potential of the enhanced scenario and carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario from 2020 to 2060， and analyze the synergistic effect of CO₂ and VOCs emission reduction. The results show that the emission of VOCs from industrial sources is about 13.575 million tons in 2020. The use of products containing VOCs has the largest emission， accounting for 55.7% of the total. Industrial protective coating， printing and packaging printing and oil and gas processing are the top three emission sources， with a total contribution rate of about 34.7%. Jiangsu， Shandong， Guangdong and Zhejiang are the top four emission provinces in China， accounting for 40.7% of the total emissions. Under the four control scenarios， the emission of high-speed GDP-enhanced scenario in 2060 is the largest， about 5.32 million tons； The low-speed GDP-carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario is the smallest， about 4.69 million tons， which reduces 630000 tons compared with the high-speed GDP-enhanced scenario， indicating that the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy is conducive to VOCs emission reduction； In terms of emission reduction rates， the reduction rate of the high-speed GDP-carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario is smaller than that of the low-speed GDP-enhanced scenario in 2020—2040 and vice versa in 2040—2060， indicating that the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy is more conducive to the medium and long-term reduction of VOCs. In terms of links， the proportion of emissions from the use of products containing VOCs changed the most， and the carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario decreased by 5% compared with the enhanced scenario in 2060. In terms of reduction， industrial coating has the largest reduction， and the main reduction way is the source substitution of coatings with low VOCs； under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario in 2060， the energy industry will reduce nearly 1.0 million tons through the improvement of energy cleanliness and energy efficiency， we should continue to promote the whole process governance of VOCs and improve the clean energy level and energy efficiency level at the same time. Under the four control scenarios， CO₂ and VOCs emission reduction have synergistic effects， under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario， the elasticity coefficient of emission reduction is ≈ 1， and the synergistic effect is better.

• Key words：volatile organic compounds （VOCs）  industrial sources  carbon peak and carbon neutrality  emission characteristics  emission reduction potential

• 
  摘要点击次数： 217 全文下载次数： 401