• 关键词：臭氧污染  气象条件指数（MCI）  气象要素  天气类型  预报  广州

• 基金项目：广东省自然科学基金项目（No.2021a1515011494）；广州市气象局科研项目（No.M202207）；广东省气象局“温室气体及碳中和监测评估”科技创新团队项目（No.GRMCTD202003）；广州市城市气象影响预报技术创新团队项目

• 黄俊
• 广州市气象台，广州 511430;广东省环珠江口气候环境与空气质量变化野外科学观测研究站，广州 510275

• 廖碧婷
• 广州市黄埔区气象局，广州 510530

• 王春林
• 广东省环珠江口气候环境与空气质量变化野外科学观测研究站，广州 510275;南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海），珠海 519082

• 刘文君
• 广州市气象台，广州 511430

• 刘霞
• 广州市气象台，广州 511430

• 摘要：利用2016—2020年近地面臭氧和气象逐时数据，基于相关性分析和概率统计方法，在分析臭氧敏感气象要素特征基础上，综合各气象因子对臭氧生成贡献大小，建立了广州逐时臭氧污染气象条件指数模型及等级标准，并进行了预报及检验.结果表明：①高浓度臭氧主要发生在高温低湿情况下，臭氧浓度及臭氧超标率均随着气温的升高而增加，当气温高于30 ℃时，臭氧浓度随温度的变化升高更为明显；臭氧浓度和超标率随着相对湿度的升高而逐渐降低，其中，当40%≤RH＜50%时，臭氧浓度及超标率最高；当风速在1~2 m?s^-1时，臭氧超标率最大.②对所建立的广州本地化的逐时臭氧污染气象条件指数模型和分级标准进行了检验评估，结果显示，臭氧污染气象条件指数等级越高，臭氧浓度和超标率也越大，说明该指数能够较好地表征臭氧污染天气的强弱.③基于欧洲中心高分辨率数值预报产品，根据污染气象条件指数模型， 对广州3种不同天气类型下的指数预报进行对比验证，预报效果较好，说明该指数对臭氧污染天气预报有较好的指导意义.

• Abstract：A Meteorological Condition Index （MCI） model and its grade standards for ozone pollution forecast in Guangzhou was established based on the correlation and probability statistics method by using surface ozone concentration and the hourly meteorological data in Guangzhou through 2016 to 2020. During the development of the MCI， ozone sensitive elements， including various meteorological factors inducing ozone pollution， were fully investigated on the basis of the characteristic of ozone pollution in Guangzhou. The MCI has been validated and applied to the ozone pollution forecast in Guangzhou. The results show that： ① High concentration of ozone mainly occurs under high temperature and low humidity. Both Ozone concentration and Ozone exceedance rate increase with temperature rising. And the increase of Ozone concentration with temperature is more obvious especially when the temperature is higher than 30 ℃. Ozone concentration and its exceeding rate gradually decrease with the increase of relative humidity. When 40%≤RH<50%， ozone concentration and its exceeding rate are the highest. When the wind speed ranges from 1 to 2 m?s^-1， the exceeding rate of ozone reaches the maximum. ②The established MCI model and grading standard for Guangzhou were further evaluated. The evaluation results show that the higher MCI， the greater the ozone concentration and the exceeding rate， indicating that the index can be better characterize ozone pollution intensity. ③Based on the high-resolution numerical forecast product of European Center， the air pollution index forecast under three different weather types in Guangzhou is conducted to compared the results between MCI model and European Center model， and the MCI’s forecast effect is good， suggesting that the index has good guidance for ozone pollution weather forecast.

• Key words：ozone pollution  meteorological condition index （MCI）  meteorological factors  weather types  forecast  Guangzhou

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