• 关键词：重化工园区  产能增加  VOCs倍量替代  VOCs排放  臭氧

• 基金项目：惠州市生态环境局大亚湾分局大亚湾区空气质量精细化管理服务项目（No. ZDYCHZ2020-01）；广东省科技计划项目（科技创新平台类）（No.2019B121201002）

• 苏闯
• 广东省固体废物和化学品环境中心，广州 510308

• 翁炜
• 惠州市生态环境局，惠州 516008

• 张萌萌
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室，广州 510006

• 朱云
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院，广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室，广州 510006

• 摘要：重化工园区产能增加将加大园区挥发性有机物（VOCs）排放总量，进而影响本地及周边城市O₃浓度.珠三角实施的“VOCs倍量替代”政策可在城市层面有效抵消重化工园区VOCs排放量上升的不利影响，还可进一步降低城市VOCs排放总量，实现区域O₃浓度下降.以惠州市某大型重化工园区为例，编制2018—2020年重化工园区产能增加以及实施“VOCs倍量替代”政策的污染物排放清单，基于WRF-CMAQ模拟体系，定量分析多种情景下园区在基准年（2017年）7—10月气象条件下对惠州市及周边城市O₃影响程度.研究表明，重化工园区增产而增加VOCs排放4101.96 t，“VOCs倍量替代”综合减排余量7298.97 t；“VOCs倍量替代”政策可有效解决重化工园区增产对O₃浓度的不利影响，其中7月最为显著，主导东南风下风向的深圳市及惠州市大亚湾管委会站点O₃浓度降幅最大，分别为3.9 μg·m^-3（下降率2.97%）和7 μg·m^-3（下降率4.95%）；7—10月平均对惠州市O₃浓度降低贡献为0.96 μg·m^-3（下降率0.53%），对周边市深圳市、东莞市、汕尾市O₃浓度分别降低1.39 μg·m^-3（下降率0.99%）、0.33 μg·m^-3（下降率0.2%）、0.3 μg·m^-3（下降率0.22%），对广州市和汕尾市影响可忽略不计.

• Abstract：Increased capacity in petrochemical industrial park leads to the significant rise in VOCs emissions， accordingly aggravating the O₃ pollution in local and surrounding cities. In the Pearl River Delta region， the well implement of "VOCs multiple substitution" policy can effectively offset the adverse impact of rising VOCs emissions in petrochemical industrial parks by reducing the total amount of VOCs emissions at the city scale， thereafter lowering the regional O₃ concentration. Taking a petrochemical park in Huizhou City as typical case study， we compiled the emission inventories of increased capacity and the implementation of "VOCs multiple substitution" policy during 2018 to 2020. With the developed emission inventories， the impacts of the petrochemical industrial park on O₃ concentrations under the meteorological conditions from July to October in the base year （2017） were then quantified using WRF-CMAQ. The results showed that， 7298.97 tons of VOCs were ultimate reduced attribute to the policy-implement of "VOCs multiple substitution"， although the increased capacity of the petrochemical industrial park brought 4101.96 tons of VOCs emissions. The simulation results proved that the policy of "VOCs multiple substitution" can effectively mitigate the adverse effect of the increased capacity in petrochemical industrial park on O₃ concentration. In July， the reduction of O₃ concentrations were maximum in Shenzhen and Guanweihui monitor station， with the reduction concentration at 3.9 μg·m^-3 （with a decline rate 2.97%） and 7 μg·m^-3 （with a decline rate 4.95%）， respectively. This was because their locations were in the downwind of the dominant wind direction of the southeast in July. From July to October， the average reduction contribution of O₃ in Huizhou， Shenzhen， Dongguan and Shanwei were 0.96 μg·m^-3 （with a decline rate 0.53%）， 1.39 μg·m^-3 （with a decline rate 0.99%）， 0.33 μg·m^-3 （with a decline rate 0.2%） and 0.3 μg·m^-3 （with a decline rate 0.22%）， respectively， while the contribution to O₃ concentration reductions in Guangzhou and Shanwei were nearly neglectable.

• Key words：petrochemical industrial park  increased capacity  VOCs multiple substitution  VOCs emissions  ozone

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