• 关键词：炼油行业  分环节VOCs排放量  VOCs分组分排放特征  VOCs减排潜势

• 基金项目：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目（No.2022D01B90）；大气重污染成因与治理攻关项目（No.DQGG202129）；中国博士后 科学基金项目（No.2022MD713808）；环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室（北京大学）开放基金项目（No.22K02ESPCP）

• 姑力巴努·艾尼
• 新疆农业大学资源与环境学院，乌鲁木齐 830052

• 高可心
• 新疆农业大学资源与环境学院，乌鲁木齐 830052

• 郑怡
• 新疆农业大学资源与环境学院，乌鲁木齐 830052

• 麦麦提·斯马义
• 新疆农业大学资源与环境学院，乌鲁木齐 830052;新疆农业大学草业学院，乌鲁木齐 830052;北京大学环境科学与工程学院，环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室，北京 100871

• 谢绍东
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院，环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室，北京 100871

• 祖力皮亚·艾尼
• 新疆生产建设兵团第三师气象站，图木舒克 843900

• 摘要：基于调查新中国成立以来炼油行业的发展历史和《炼化一体化》规划，预测了我国炼油行业2020—2030年的发展趋势.根据相关文献 测量和调研结果及当前VOCs控制技术和政策，确定了炼油行业不同排放环节的VOCs源成分谱和排放因子.同时，运用排放因子法估算了2020年炼油行业分储罐、无组织、有组织和污水处理等4个环节的分组分VOCs排放量，分析了其时空演变；运用情景模拟法确定了不同地区和排放环节的减排技术、措施及两者之间的差异性、排放因子的减排率，并构建了3个不同情景，量化分析了未来10年内各省（区、市）炼油行业不同环节的VOCs排放量变化趋势和减排责任.研究结果显示，新中国成立以来，我国炼油行业VOCs排放量以年均12.0%的增速增加至2020年的116.59×10⁴ t，山东、辽宁、广东、江苏和浙江是排放量最高的5个省份，占全国炼油行业VOCs排放总量的55%；无组织VOCs排放占炼油厂VOCs排放总量的40.0%~44.0%，其次为有组织（28.4%~31.3%）、储罐（18.3%~25.3%）和废水处理（5.8%~6.6%）排放；烷烃是炼油厂排放量最大的化学组分（60%），其次是烯烃（17.9%）、芳香烃（15.3%）和OVOCs（3.8%）.假设2020年后没有新的控制措施，中国炼油行业2030年的VOCs排放量比2020年增加50%以上，但在现有控制政策下的排放量可能在2025年左右达到高峰，2030年的排放量比2020年约下降8%. 如果执行最新的行业放标准、淘汰老旧固定顶罐和外浮顶罐、安装油气回收和治理系统、提高生产设备和储罐的密闭性、全面开展无组织排放检测与修复、采用最佳末端排放控制技术，则2030年炼油行业VOCs排放量较2020年要下降36%~54%.山东是炼油行业VOCs减排潜势最大的省份，而炼油行业VOCs减排压力主要来自河北、辽宁、浙江、江苏和广东.

• Abstract：Based on a survey of the development history of the petroleum refining industry since the founding of New China and the "Refining-Chemical Integrated" program， the development trend of China's refining industry in 2030 is predicted. Based on integrating relevant literature research results， current VOCs control technologies and policies， the VOCs source composition spectrum and emission factors of different emission sectors in the oil refining industry were determined. Then， the emission factor method is used to estimate the emissions of speciated VOCs in the petroleum refining industry in 2020 by four sectors： storage tanks， fugitive， end-of-pipe， and wastewater treatment， and the spatiotemporal variations were analyzed. The scenario simulation method was used to determine the emission reduction technologies/measures in different regions and sectors， and the emission reduction rates of emission factors. Furthermore， three scenarios were constructed to quantify the trends of VOC emissions in different sectors of the refining industry in each province. The results of this study showed that since the founding of New China， China's refining industry VOC emissions increased at an average annual growth rate of 12.0% to 116.59×10⁴ t in 2020. Shandong， Liaoning， Guangdong， Jiangsu， and Zhejiang are the five provinces with the highest emissions， accounting for 55% of the national emissions. Fugitive emissions were the largest source of VOCs in the refining industry， accounting for 40.0%~44.0% of total emissions， followed by end-of-pipe （28.4%~31.3%）， tank （18.3%~25.3%）， and wastewater treatment （5.8%~6.6%） emissions. Alkanes are the largest chemical components （60%） in refining industry VOCs emissions， followed by alkenes （17.9%）， aromatics （15.3%）， and OVOCs （3.8%）. Under the no-control scenario， China's refining industry VOCs emissions will increase by more than 50% in 2030 compared to 2020. VOCs emissions from the refining industry will peak around 2025 and will decrease by 8% in 2030 compared to 2020 under the existing control measures. If the latest emission standards would be implemented， the old fixed roof tank and external floating roof tank are eliminated， the oil and gas recovery and treatment system be installed， the tightness of production equipment and storage tank is improved， leakage emission detection and repair are comprehensively carried out， and the best end of pipe emission control technology is adopted， the VOCs emission of the oil refining industry in 2030 will be reduced by 36%~54% compared with that in 2020. Shandong has the highest potential for VOCs emission reduction in the refining industry， while the main pressure for VOCs emission reduction in the refining industry mainly comes from Hebei， Liaoning， Zhejiang， Jiangsu， and Guangdong.

• Key words：petroleum refining industry  VOCs emissions by four sectors  speciated VOCs emission characteristics  VOCs emission reduction potential

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