中国城市低碳治理的减污降碳协同效应——基于三批次低碳城市试点政策实施的准自然实验
- Synergistic Effect of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Mitigation in Chinese Low-carbon Cities——A quasi-natural experiment from the implementation of three batches of the low-carbon city pilot policies
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（No.72091510）；湖南省自然科学基金重点项目（No.2025JJ30032）；长沙市自然科学基金项目（No.2025JJ30032）；湖南工商大学2024校级研究生科研创新项目（No.CX2024YB026）
- 摘要：低碳城市试点政策作为新时代中国生态文明建设“降碳、减污、扩绿、增长”的重要政策工具，研究该政策的减污降碳协同治理效果及其机制对我国“双碳”目标实现和生态环境治理现代化具有重要意义. 选取2006—2021年中国265个地级市作为研究样本，将减污降碳与增长扩绿和政府政策水平纳入同一系统，运用耦合协调度模型对减污降碳-增长扩绿-政府政策的协同效应进行综合评价，分析其耦合协调度的时空分异特征，构建多期双重差分模型从多领域考察低碳城市试点政策能否推进减污降碳协同治理，并从居民生活、工业生产和市政行为三个层面对其内在作用机制进行探讨. 结果表明：（1）2006—2021年中国减污降碳协同水平呈现明显的上升态势，其中2019年和2021年北京市耦合协调度分别以93. 869和92. 687领先全国；（2）低碳城市试点政策有效实现了减污降碳治理效果，其边际效应为59. 10%；（3）低碳城市试点政策对高水平数字化转型城市的减污降碳效果更为显著，对低工业化水平城市的减污降碳协同治理效果要好于高工业化水平城市. 此外，非资源型城市更能实现减污降碳治理；（4）作用机制分析发现，低碳城市试点政策的实施可以通过影响居民生活、工业生产和市政行为促进减污降碳协同治理，对机制变量的影响系数均在1%的水平下显著. 低碳城市建设应总结成功经验，遵循因地制宜，全面打造智慧绿色低碳城市以及加大低碳宣传力度，为实现减污降碳协同增效奠定基础.
- Abstract：As a pivotal policy instrument in China's ecological civilization construction during the new era, aimed at " reducing carbon emissions, controlling pollution, expanding greenery, and promoting economic growth", the low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy holds significant implications for achieving China's dual carbon goals and modernizing ecological environment governance. This study selects 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2021 as research samples, integrating pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, economic growth and green expansion, and government policy levels into a unified system. Utilizing a coupling coordination degree model, the study comprehensively evaluates the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, economic growth and green expansion, and government policies, analyzing the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of their coupling coordination degree. A multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model is constructed to examine whether the LCCP policy promotes synergistic governance of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation across multiple domains, and to explore its intrinsic mechanisms at three levels: residential life, industrial production, and municipal behavior. The results indicate that: (1) From 2006 to 2021, China's synergistic level of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation showed a significant upward trend, with Beijing's coupling coordination degree leading the nation at 93.869 and 92.687 in 2019 and 2021, respectively; (2) The LCCP policy effectively achieves pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, with a marginal effect of 59.10%; (3) The LCCP policy's impact on pollution reduction and carbon mitigation is more pronounced in cities with high levels of digital transformation, and its synergistic governance effect is better in cities with lower industrialization levels compared to those with higher industrialization levels. Additionally, non-resource-based cities are more capable of achieving pollution reduction and carbon mitigation; (4) Mechanism analysis reveals that the implementation of the LCCP policy can promote synergistic governance of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation by influencing residential life, industrial production, and municipal behavior, with the impact coefficients of the mechanism variables being significant at the 1% level. The construction of low-carbon cities should summarize successful experiences, adhere to local conditions, comprehensively develop smart, green, and low-carbon cities, and intensify low-carbon publicity to lay the foundation for achieving synergistic effects in pollution reduction and carbon mitigation.
